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Predictions › United States › Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets
NBAWed 21 Oct, 20:30 United States time

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets prediction

Toyota Center (Houston)

Dallas MavericksAway
108.8 : 117.3
projected points
Houston RocketsHome
26%Mavericks
74%Rockets
Eagle safe pickRockets to win
-310

Quick answer

Our prediction for Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets is Houston Rockets to win, with a 74% chance. We project Dallas Mavericks 108.8 and Houston Rockets 117.3. Our best bet is Rockets to win at -310.

Prediction
Houston Rockets to win
Chance
74%
Projected score
Dallas Mavericks 109, Houston Rockets 117
Projected total
226.2 points
Best bet
Rockets to win at -310

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Rockets to win
74% chancePrice -3101 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Houston Rockets 74% and Dallas Mavericks 26%. The bookmakers agree and make Houston Rockets the favourite at -310.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Houston Rockets won 3 of their last 5 and Dallas Mavericks won 2 of their last 5. Houston Rockets come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Houston Rockets won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Dallas Mavericks won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Houston Rockets score 115.5 points a game and let in 109.1. Dallas Mavericks score 118.8 and let in 126.3. Their recent games average 224.6 and 245.2 points in total, and the market line is 226.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Houston Rockets won 2 and Dallas Mavericks won 3. The last one ended Houston Rockets 115, Dallas Mavericks 132.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Rockets to win has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Rocketsrest between games-5%
  • Mavericksrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets: Houston Rockets are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Houston Rockets host Dallas Mavericks in the NBA on Wed 21 Oct, 20:30 at Toyota Center (Houston). Our prediction for Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets is Houston Rockets to win, with a 74% chance. We project Dallas Mavericks 108.8 and Houston Rockets 117.3. Our best bet is Rockets to win at -310.

Houston Rockets form

Houston Rockets have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 2310 points scored and 2182 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Dallas Mavericks form

Dallas Mavericks have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 2377 points scored and 2526 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Houston Rockets won 2, Dallas Mavericks won 3. Last time out it finished Houston Rockets 115, Dallas Mavericks 132.

Our call

We expect Dallas Mavericks to score about 108.8 points and Houston Rockets about 117.3. That points to Houston Rockets to win. Our safest bet is Rockets to win at -310.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

RocketsMavericks
Games played2020
Wins126
Losses814
Points scored23102377
Points conceded21822526
Scored per game115.5118.8
Conceded per game109.1126.3
Home record6W 4L2W 7L
Away record6W 4L4W 7L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Rockets to win74%-290-310-1.6%
Mavericks to win25%+302+250-12.8%
Rockets -8.547%+112-102-6.5%
Mavericks +8.547%+111-118-12.5%
Over 226.5 points47%+114-115-12.8%
Under 226.5 points48%+109-105-6.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Rockets spreadCoversFair
Rockets -14.531%+218
Rockets -11.540%+147
Rockets -8.550%+100
Rockets -5.559%-146
Rockets -2.568%-216
Total pointsOverUnder
220.562%38%
223.556%44%
226.549%51%
229.543%57%
232.536%64%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Rockets +3.5 wins if Rockets win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NBA

Mavs and Rockets Bond and Break Rims on Preseason China Trip

The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets are in Macao, China, for a preseason doubleheader, bonding off the court and meeting fans.

8 Oct 2026
NBA

Dallas Mavericks Center Dereck Lively II Out for Start of Training Camp

Dallas Mavericks center Dereck Lively II is not cleared for training camp as he continues to recover from right foot surgery.

24 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets?

Our prediction for Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets is Houston Rockets to win, with a 74% chance. We project Dallas Mavericks 108.8 and Houston Rockets 117.3. Our best bet is Rockets to win at -310.

What is the projected score for Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets?

We project Dallas Mavericks 108.8 and Houston Rockets 117.3, about 226.2 points in total.

How are Houston Rockets playing?

Houston Rockets have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 2310 points scored and 2182 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Dallas Mavericks playing?

Dallas Mavericks have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 2377 points scored and 2526 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks last met?

It ended Houston Rockets 115, Dallas Mavericks 132. In the last 5 meetings Houston Rockets won 2 and Dallas Mavericks won 3.

What is the best bet for Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets?

Rockets to win at -310, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Rockets against Mavericks. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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