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Predictions › United States › Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat
NBAMon 26 Oct, 19:30 United States time

Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat prediction

Kaseya Center

Dallas MavericksAway
117.9 : 125.5
projected points
Miami HeatHome
26%Mavericks
74%Heat
Eagle safe pickHeat +0.5
-296

Quick answer

Our prediction for Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat is Miami Heat to win, with a 74% chance. We project Dallas Mavericks 117.9 and Miami Heat 125.5. Our best bet is Heat +0.5 at -296.

Prediction
Miami Heat to win
Chance
74%
Projected score
Dallas Mavericks 118, Miami Heat 126
Projected total
243.5 points
Best bet
Heat +0.5 at -296

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Heat +0.5
75% chanceFair price -2961 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Mavericks to win
25% chanceFair price +2931 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Miami Heat 74% and Dallas Mavericks 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Miami Heat won 3 of their last 5 and Dallas Mavericks won 2 of their last 5. Miami Heat come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Miami Heat won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Dallas Mavericks won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Miami Heat score 124.5 points a game and let in 126.5. Dallas Mavericks score 117.7 and let in 126.3. Their recent games average 250.9 and 243.9 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Miami Heat won 1 and Dallas Mavericks won 1. The last one ended Dallas Mavericks 118, Miami Heat 108.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Heat +0.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Heatrest between games-5%
  • Mavericksrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat: Miami Heat are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Miami Heat host Dallas Mavericks in the NBA on Mon 26 Oct, 19:30 at Kaseya Center. Our prediction for Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat is Miami Heat to win, with a 74% chance. We project Dallas Mavericks 117.9 and Miami Heat 125.5. Our best bet is Heat +0.5 at -296.

Miami Heat form

Miami Heat have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 2489 points scored and 2530 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Dallas Mavericks form

Dallas Mavericks have 5 wins and 15 losses in their last 20 games, with 2353 points scored and 2526 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Miami Heat won 1, Dallas Mavericks won 1. Last time out it finished Dallas Mavericks 118, Miami Heat 108.

Our call

We expect Dallas Mavericks to score about 117.9 points and Miami Heat about 125.5. That points to Miami Heat to win. Our safest bet is Heat +0.5 at -296. Our bold bet is Mavericks to win at +293.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HeatMavericks
Games played2020
Wins85
Losses1215
Points scored24892353
Points conceded25302526
Scored per game124.5117.7
Conceded per game126.5126.3
Home record5W 4L2W 9L
Away record3W 8L3W 6L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Heat spreadCoversFair
Heat -13.532%+214
Heat -10.541%+145
Heat -7.550%-101
Heat -4.560%-149
Heat -1.569%-220
Total pointsOverUnder
237.563%37%
240.557%43%
243.550%50%
246.543%57%
249.537%63%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Heat +3.5 wins if Heat win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NBA

Mavs and Rockets Bond and Break Rims on Preseason China Trip

The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets are in Macao, China, for a preseason doubleheader, bonding off the court and meeting fans.

8 Oct 2026
NBA

Dallas Mavericks Center Dereck Lively II Out for Start of Training Camp

Dallas Mavericks center Dereck Lively II is not cleared for training camp as he continues to recover from right foot surgery.

24 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat?

Our prediction for Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat is Miami Heat to win, with a 74% chance. We project Dallas Mavericks 117.9 and Miami Heat 125.5. Our best bet is Heat +0.5 at -296.

What is the projected score for Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat?

We project Dallas Mavericks 117.9 and Miami Heat 125.5, about 243.5 points in total.

How are Miami Heat playing?

Miami Heat have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 2489 points scored and 2530 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Dallas Mavericks playing?

Dallas Mavericks have 5 wins and 15 losses in their last 20 games, with 2353 points scored and 2526 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks last met?

It ended Dallas Mavericks 118, Miami Heat 108. In the last 2 meetings Miami Heat won 1 and Dallas Mavericks won 1.

What is the best bet for Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat?

Heat +0.5 at -296, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Heat against Mavericks. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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