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Predictions › Uruguay › Danubio vs Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 4 Oct, 13:00 Uruguay time

Danubio vs Cerro Largo prediction

Jardines del Hipódromo

DanubioHome
0.94 : 0.72
expected goals
Cerro LargoAway
38%Danubio
36%Draw
26%Cerro Largo
Eagle safe pickUnder 2.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Danubio vs Cerro Largo is Danubio to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Danubio to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
0-0
Expected goals
Danubio 0.9, Cerro Largo 0.7
Best bet
Under 2.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
32%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 2.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0
20% chanceFair price 5.071 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Danubio 38%, the draw 36% and Cerro Largo 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Danubio took 2 points from their last 5 games and Cerro Largo took 2 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Danubio won 0 of their last 9 games at home. Cerro Largo won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Danubio score 0.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Cerro Largo score 0.8 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Danubio games and 4 of Cerro Largo games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Danubio won 0 and Cerro Largo won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Cerro Largo 2, Danubio 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 2.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Danubiorecent form-4%
  • Cerro Largorecent form-4%
  • Danubiorest between games-5%
  • Cerro Largorest between games-5%
Danubio form L D D L LCerro Largo form L L D L DHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Danubio vs Cerro Largo: Danubio shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Danubio host Cerro Largo in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 4 Oct, 13:00 at Jardines del Hipódromo. Our prediction for Danubio vs Cerro Largo is Danubio to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.32.

Danubio form

Danubio have 1 win, 10 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 12 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Cerro Largo form

Cerro Largo have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Danubio won 0, Cerro Largo won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Cerro Largo 2, Danubio 0.

Our call

We expect Danubio to score about 0.9 goals and Cerro Largo about 0.7. That points to Danubio to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 5.07.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DanubioCerro Largo
Games played2020
Wins14
Draws108
Losses98
Goals scored1216
Goals conceded2621
Scored per game0.60.8
Conceded per game1.31.1
Home record0W 5D 4L2W 6D 3L
Away record1W 5D 5L2W 2D 5L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored45%40%
Over 2.5 goals35%20%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals50%1.99
Over 2.5 goals23%4.29
Over 3.5 goals9%11.38
Both teams to score32%3.11
Danubio or Draw74%1.35
Cerro Largo or Draw62%1.62
Danubio to win and Over 2.513%7.79
Cerro Largo to win and Over 2.58%12.29
Danubio clean sheet49%2.06
Cerro Largo clean sheet39%2.56

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-019.7%
1-017.0%
1-113.7%
0-112.9%
2-08.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Danubio vs Cerro Largo?

Our prediction for Danubio vs Cerro Largo is Danubio to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Danubio vs Cerro Largo?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Danubio to score 0.9 goals and Cerro Largo 0.7.

Will both teams score in Danubio vs Cerro Largo?

Both teams to score has a 32% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Danubio last 20 games and 8 of Cerro Largo last 20.

How are Danubio playing?

Danubio have 1 win, 10 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 12 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Cerro Largo playing?

Cerro Largo have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Danubio and Cerro Largo last met?

It ended Cerro Largo 2, Danubio 0. In the last 1 meeting Danubio won 0 and Cerro Largo won 1.

What is the best bet for Danubio vs Cerro Largo?

Under 2.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Danubio against Cerro Largo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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