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Predictions › Uruguay › Danubio vs Nacional
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 1 Nov, 19:30 Uruguay time

Danubio vs Nacional prediction

Jardines del Hipódromo

DanubioHome
0.88 : 1.11
expected goals
NacionalAway
28%Danubio
32%Draw
40%Nacional
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Danubio vs Nacional is Nacional to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction
Nacional to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
0-0
Expected goals
Danubio 0.9, Nacional 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score
40%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0
14% chanceFair price 6.941 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Danubio 28%, the draw 32% and Nacional 40%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Danubio took 7 points from their last 5 games and Nacional took 15 from 5. Nacional come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Danubio won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Nacional won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Danubio score 0.5 goals a game and let in 1.2. Nacional score 1.3 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Danubio games and 9 of Nacional games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Danubio won 1 and Nacional won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Danubio 0, Nacional 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Danubiorecent form-1%
  • Nacionalrecent form+6%
  • Nacionalrest between games-2%
Danubio form D L W L DNacional form D W W W WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Danubio vs Nacional: Nacional shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Danubio host Nacional in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 1 Nov, 19:30 at Jardines del Hipódromo. Our prediction for Danubio vs Nacional is Nacional to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

Danubio form

Danubio have 2 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 10 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Nacional form

Nacional have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Danubio won 1, Nacional won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Danubio 0, Nacional 0.

Our call

We expect Danubio to score about 0.9 goals and Nacional about 1.1. That points to Nacional to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 6.94.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DanubioNacional
Games played2020
Wins212
Draws84
Losses104
Goals scored1026
Goals conceded2419
Scored per game0.51.3
Conceded per game1.20.9
Home record2W 4D 4L8W 2D 2L
Away record0W 4D 6L4W 2D 2L
Clean sheets25%45%
Both teams scored35%45%
Over 2.5 goals30%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals60%1.67
Over 2.5 goals32%3.11
Over 3.5 goals14%7.05
Both teams to score40%2.49
Danubio or Draw60%1.67
Nacional or Draw72%1.39
Danubio to win and Over 2.511%8.81
Nacional to win and Over 2.517%5.82
Danubio clean sheet33%3.04
Nacional clean sheet41%2.41

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-014.4%
0-114.4%
1-114.2%
1-011.2%
0-28.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Danubio vs Nacional?

Our prediction for Danubio vs Nacional is Nacional to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Danubio vs Nacional?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-1. We expect Danubio to score 0.9 goals and Nacional 1.1.

Will both teams score in Danubio vs Nacional?

Both teams to score has a 40% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Danubio last 20 games and 9 of Nacional last 20.

How are Danubio playing?

Danubio have 2 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 10 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Nacional playing?

Nacional have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Danubio and Nacional last met?

It ended Danubio 0, Nacional 0. In the last 3 meetings Danubio won 1 and Nacional won 0.

What is the best bet for Danubio vs Nacional?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Danubio against Nacional. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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