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Predictions › Argentina › Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente
Argentina Liga ProfesionalSat 31 Oct, 17:45 Argentina time

Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente prediction

Norberto Tomaghello

Defensa y JusticiaHome
1.08 : 1.01
expected goals
IndependienteAway
36%Def. y Jus.
32%Draw
32%Independiente
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente is Defensa y Justicia to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction
Defensa y Justicia to win
Chance
36%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Defensa y Justicia 1.1, Independiente 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score
43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
83% chanceFair price 1.202 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.001 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Defensa y Justicia 36%, the draw 32% and Independiente 32%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Defensa y Justicia took 10 points from their last 5 games and Independiente took 6 from 5. Defensa y Justicia come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Defensa y Justicia won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Independiente won 5 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Defensa y Justicia score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Independiente score 1.1 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Defensa y Justicia games and 8 of Independiente games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Defensa y Justicia won 0 and Independiente won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Independiente 3, Defensa y Justicia 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Def. y Jus.recent form+3%
Def. y Jus. form W D W L WIndependiente form L W D W LHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente: Defensa y Justicia shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Defensa y Justicia host Independiente in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sat 31 Oct, 17:45 at Norberto Tomaghello. Our prediction for Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente is Defensa y Justicia to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

Defensa y Justicia form

Defensa y Justicia have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Independiente form

Independiente have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Defensa y Justicia won 0, Independiente won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente 3, Defensa y Justicia 1.

Our call

We expect Defensa y Justicia to score about 1.1 goals and Independiente about 1.0. That points to Defensa y Justicia to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.00.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Def. y Jus.Independiente
Games played2020
Wins98
Draws35
Losses87
Goals scored2821
Goals conceded2723
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.41.1
Home record6W 1D 3L3W 2D 4L
Away record3W 2D 5L5W 3D 3L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored50%50%
Over 2.5 goals55%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals63%1.59
Over 2.5 goals35%2.86
Over 3.5 goals16%6.20
Both teams to score43%2.33
Defensa y Justicia or Draw68%1.48
Independiente or Draw64%1.56
Defensa y Justicia to win and Over 2.516%6.12
Independiente to win and Over 2.514%6.91
Defensa y Justicia clean sheet36%2.76
Independiente clean sheet34%2.96

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.3%
0-013.1%
1-012.5%
0-111.6%
2-17.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente?

Our prediction for Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente is Defensa y Justicia to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-0. We expect Defensa y Justicia to score 1.1 goals and Independiente 1.0.

Will both teams score in Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Defensa y Justicia last 20 games and 10 of Independiente last 20.

How are Defensa y Justicia playing?

Defensa y Justicia have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Independiente playing?

Independiente have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Defensa y Justicia and Independiente last met?

It ended Independiente 3, Defensa y Justicia 1. In the last 1 meeting Defensa y Justicia won 0 and Independiente won 1.

What is the best bet for Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Def. y Jus. against Independiente. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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