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Predictions › Argentina › Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo
Argentina Liga ProfesionalSat 3 Oct, 17:45 Argentina time

Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo prediction

Norberto Tomaghello

Defensa y JusticiaHome
1.08 : 0.76
expected goals
San LorenzoAway
42%Def. y Jus.
33%Draw
25%San Lorenzo
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.16

Quick answer

Our prediction for Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo is Defensa y Justicia to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.16.

Prediction
Defensa y Justicia to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
0-0
Expected goals
Defensa y Justicia 1.1, San Lorenzo 0.8
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.16
Both teams to score
36%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
86% chanceFair price 1.162 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0
17% chanceFair price 5.991 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Defensa y Justicia 42%, the draw 33% and San Lorenzo 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Defensa y Justicia the favourite at 2.15.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Defensa y Justicia took 10 points from their last 5 games and San Lorenzo took 5 from 5. Defensa y Justicia come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Defensa y Justicia won 5 of their last 10 games at home. San Lorenzo won 1 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Defensa y Justicia score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.4. San Lorenzo score 0.7 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Defensa y Justicia games and 3 of San Lorenzo games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Defensa y Justicia won 1 and San Lorenzo won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended San Lorenzo 2, Defensa y Justicia 5.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Def. y Jus.recent form+3%
  • San Lorenzo recent form-1%
Def. y Jus. form D W L W WSan Lorenzo form L D W L DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo: Defensa y Justicia shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Defensa y Justicia host San Lorenzo in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sat 3 Oct, 17:45 at Norberto Tomaghello. Our prediction for Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo is Defensa y Justicia to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.16.

Defensa y Justicia form

Defensa y Justicia have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

San Lorenzo form

San Lorenzo have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 13 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 7 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Defensa y Justicia won 1, San Lorenzo won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished San Lorenzo 2, Defensa y Justicia 5.

Our call

We expect Defensa y Justicia to score about 1.1 goals and San Lorenzo about 0.8. That points to Defensa y Justicia to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.16. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 5.99.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Def. y Jus.San Lorenzo
Games played2020
Wins75
Draws68
Losses77
Goals scored2513
Goals conceded2819
Scored per game1.30.7
Conceded per game1.40.9
Home record5W 3D 2L4W 1D 4L
Away record2W 3D 5L1W 7D 3L
Clean sheets20%45%
Both teams scored60%30%
Over 2.5 goals50%15%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Defensa y Justicia to win39%2.572.15-16.3%
A Draw32%3.162.85-9.9%
San Lorenzo to win24%4.213.75-10.8%
Over 1.5 goals56%1.781.51-15.0%
Under 1.5 goals38%2.662.35-11.6%
Defensa y Justicia -0.540%2.472.05-17.1%
San Lorenzo +0.553%1.881.63-13.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals56%1.80
Over 2.5 goals28%3.58
Over 3.5 goals11%8.71
Both teams to score36%2.79
Defensa y Justicia or Draw75%1.32
San Lorenzo or Draw58%1.73
Defensa y Justicia to win and Over 2.516%6.13
San Lorenzo to win and Over 2.59%11.48
Defensa y Justicia clean sheet47%2.13
San Lorenzo clean sheet34%2.95

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-016.7%
1-016.4%
1-113.8%
0-111.3%
2-09.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?

Our prediction for Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo is Defensa y Justicia to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.16.

What is the score prediction for Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Defensa y Justicia to score 1.1 goals and San Lorenzo 0.8.

Will both teams score in Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?

Both teams to score has a 36% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Defensa y Justicia last 20 games and 6 of San Lorenzo last 20.

How are Defensa y Justicia playing?

Defensa y Justicia have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are San Lorenzo playing?

San Lorenzo have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 13 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 7 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Defensa y Justicia and San Lorenzo last met?

It ended San Lorenzo 2, Defensa y Justicia 5. In the last 1 meeting Defensa y Justicia won 1 and San Lorenzo won 0.

What is the best bet for Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.16, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Def. y Jus. against San Lorenzo . A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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