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Predictions › Uruguay › Defensor Sporting vs Cerro
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSat 10 Oct, 14:00 Uruguay time

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro prediction

Estadio Luis Franzini

Defensor SportingHome
1.25 : 1.00
expected goals
CerroAway
41%Defensor
30%Draw
29%Cerro
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro is Defensor Sporting to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction
Defensor Sporting to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Defensor Sporting 1.3, Cerro 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score
46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.161 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Defensor Sporting 41%, the draw 30% and Cerro 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Defensor Sporting took 7 points from their last 5 games and Cerro took 8 from 5. Cerro come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Defensor Sporting won 5 of their last 12 games at home. Cerro won 3 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Defensor Sporting score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.3. Cerro score 0.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Defensor Sporting games and 8 of Cerro games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Defensor Sporting won 1 and Cerro won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Defensor Sporting 2, Cerro 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cerrorecent form+1%
  • Defensorrest between games-2%
Defensor form W L W D LCerro form D L W W DHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro: Defensor Sporting shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Defensor Sporting host Cerro in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sat 10 Oct, 14:00 at Estadio Luis Franzini. Our prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro is Defensor Sporting to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Defensor Sporting form

Defensor Sporting have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Cerro form

Cerro have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Defensor Sporting won 1, Cerro won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Defensor Sporting 2, Cerro 1.

Our call

We expect Defensor Sporting to score about 1.3 goals and Cerro about 1.0. That points to Defensor Sporting to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.16.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DefensorCerro
Games played2020
Wins57
Draws75
Losses88
Goals scored1918
Goals conceded2625
Scored per game0.90.9
Conceded per game1.31.3
Home record5W 1D 6L4W 1D 3L
Away record0W 6D 2L3W 4D 5L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored60%50%
Over 2.5 goals35%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals67%1.50
Over 2.5 goals39%2.56
Over 3.5 goals19%5.25
Both teams to score46%2.18
Defensor Sporting or Draw71%1.41
Cerro or Draw59%1.70
Defensor Sporting to win and Over 2.521%4.87
Cerro to win and Over 2.514%7.26
Defensor Sporting clean sheet37%2.72
Cerro clean sheet29%3.48

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%
1-012.4%
0-011.3%
0-19.8%
2-18.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?

Our prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro is Defensor Sporting to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Defensor Sporting to score 1.3 goals and Cerro 1.0.

Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Defensor Sporting last 20 games and 10 of Cerro last 20.

How are Defensor Sporting playing?

Defensor Sporting have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, L, newest first.

How are Cerro playing?

Cerro have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Defensor Sporting and Cerro last met?

It ended Defensor Sporting 2, Cerro 1. In the last 3 meetings Defensor Sporting won 1 and Cerro won 2.

What is the best bet for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.27, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Defensor against Cerro. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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