Predictions › Uruguay › Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado

Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 13 Sept, 19:00 Uruguay time

Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction

Estadio Luis Franzini

Defensor SportingHome

1.10 : 1.35

expected goals

Deportivo MaldonadoAway

30%Defensor

29%Draw

42%Maldonado

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado is Deportivo Maldonado to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction: Deportivo Maldonado to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Defensor Sporting 1.1, Deportivo Maldonado 1.4
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

79% chanceFair price 1.272 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.361 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Defensor Sporting 30%, the draw 29% and Deportivo Maldonado 42%. The bookmakers agree and make Deportivo Maldonado the favourite at 2.50.
2
Recent form
Defensor Sporting took 2 points from their last 5 games and Deportivo Maldonado took 8 from 5. Deportivo Maldonado come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Defensor Sporting won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Deportivo Maldonado won 4 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Defensor Sporting score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. Deportivo Maldonado score 1.6 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Defensor Sporting games and 8 of Deportivo Maldonado games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Defensor Sporting won 0 and Deportivo Maldonado won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Deportivo Maldonado 1, Defensor Sporting 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Defensorrecent form-4%
Maldonadorecent form+1%

Defensor form D L D L LMaldonado form W L D W DHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado: Deportivo Maldonado shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Defensor Sporting host Deportivo Maldonado in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 13 Sept, 19:00 at Estadio Luis Franzini. Our prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado is Deportivo Maldonado to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Defensor Sporting form

Defensor Sporting have 3 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Deportivo Maldonado form

Deportivo Maldonado have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Defensor Sporting won 0, Deportivo Maldonado won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Deportivo Maldonado 1, Defensor Sporting 0.

Our call

We expect Defensor Sporting to score about 1.1 goals and Deportivo Maldonado about 1.4. That points to Deportivo Maldonado to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.36.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Defensor	Maldonado
Games played	20	20
Wins	3	10
Draws	9	6
Losses	8	4
Goals scored	16	31
Goals conceded	25	18
Scored per game	0.8	1.6
Conceded per game	1.3	0.9
Home record	3W 2D 6L	6W 4D 1L
Away record	0W 7D 2L	4W 2D 3L
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	30%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Defensor Sporting to win	28%	3.53	2.70	-23.4%
A Draw	27%	3.67	3.15	-14.2%
Deportivo Maldonado to win	38%	2.60	2.50	-3.8%
Over 2.5 goals	41%	2.44	2.15	-12.1%
Under 2.5 goals	57%	1.77	1.65	-6.9%
Defensor Sporting +0.5	62%	1.62	1.49	-8.1%
Deportivo Maldonado -0.5	36%	2.77	2.40	-13.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	71%	1.41
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.26
Over 3.5 goals	23%	4.32
Both teams to score	50%	1.99
Defensor Sporting or Draw	58%	1.71
Deportivo Maldonado or Draw	70%	1.42
Defensor Sporting to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.35
Deportivo Maldonado to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.36
Defensor Sporting clean sheet	26%	3.85
Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet	33%	3.00

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%

0-110.9%

0-09.4%

1-08.7%

1-28.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?

What is the score prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Defensor Sporting to score 1.1 goals and Deportivo Maldonado 1.4.

Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Defensor Sporting last 20 games and 10 of Deportivo Maldonado last 20.

How are Defensor Sporting playing?

How are Deportivo Maldonado playing?

What happened when Defensor Sporting and Deportivo Maldonado last met?

It ended Deportivo Maldonado 1, Defensor Sporting 0. In the last 1 meeting Defensor Sporting won 0 and Deportivo Maldonado won 1.

What is the best bet for Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Defensor against Maldonado. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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