EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Uruguay › Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 15 Nov, 23:00 Uruguay time

Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol prediction

Estadio Luis Franzini

Defensor SportingHome
0.68 : 1.57
expected goals
PeñarolAway
15%Defensor
26%Draw
58%Peñarol
Eagle safe pickPeñarol or Draw
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol is Peñarol to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Peñarol or Draw at 1.19.

Prediction
Peñarol to win
Chance
58%
Most likely score
0-1
Expected goals
Defensor Sporting 0.7, Peñarol 1.6
Best bet
Peñarol or Draw at 1.19
Both teams to score
40%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Peñarol or Draw
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Peñarol to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.411 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Defensor Sporting 15%, the draw 26% and Peñarol 58%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Defensor Sporting took 4 points from their last 5 games and Peñarol took 6 from 5. Peñarol come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Defensor Sporting won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Peñarol won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Defensor Sporting score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.6. Peñarol score 1.5 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Defensor Sporting games and 8 of Peñarol games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Defensor Sporting won 0 and Peñarol won 2 with 1 draw. The last one ended Defensor Sporting 0, Peñarol 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Peñarol or Draw has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Defensorrecent form-4%
Defensor form D D L L LPeñarol form D D L D WHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol: Peñarol are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Defensor Sporting host Peñarol in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 15 Nov, 23:00 at Estadio Luis Franzini. Our prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol is Peñarol to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Peñarol or Draw at 1.19.

Defensor Sporting form

Defensor Sporting have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Peñarol form

Peñarol have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Defensor Sporting won 0, Peñarol won 2 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Defensor Sporting 0, Peñarol 2.

Our call

We expect Defensor Sporting to score about 0.7 goals and Peñarol about 1.6. That points to Peñarol to win, with 0-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Peñarol or Draw at 1.19. Our bold bet is Peñarol to win and Over 2.5 at 3.41.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DefensorPeñarol
Games played2020
Wins410
Draws66
Losses104
Goals scored2230
Goals conceded3213
Scored per game1.11.5
Conceded per game1.60.7
Home record3W 2D 6L6W 2D 3L
Away record1W 4D 4L4W 4D 1L
Clean sheets20%35%
Both teams scored60%45%
Over 2.5 goals45%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%1.51
Over 2.5 goals39%2.56
Over 3.5 goals19%5.24
Both teams to score40%2.52
Defensor Sporting or Draw42%2.40
Peñarol or Draw85%1.18
Defensor Sporting to win and Over 2.56%15.74
Peñarol to win and Over 2.529%3.40
Defensor Sporting clean sheet21%4.83
Peñarol clean sheet51%1.97

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-115.9%
0-213.0%
1-111.9%
0-011.2%
1-28.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol?

Our prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol is Peñarol to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Peñarol or Draw at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol?

0-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-2 and 1-1. We expect Defensor Sporting to score 0.7 goals and Peñarol 1.6.

Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol?

Both teams to score has a 40% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Defensor Sporting last 20 games and 9 of Peñarol last 20.

How are Defensor Sporting playing?

Defensor Sporting have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Peñarol playing?

Peñarol have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Defensor Sporting and Peñarol last met?

It ended Defensor Sporting 0, Peñarol 2. In the last 3 meetings Defensor Sporting won 0 and Peñarol won 2.

What is the best bet for Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol?

Peñarol or Draw at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Defensor against Peñarol. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.