Predictions › Uruguay › Defensor Sporting vs Racing (Montevideo)

Uruguayan Primera DivisionFri 23 Oct, 23:00 Uruguay time

Defensor Sporting vs Racing (Montevideo) prediction

Estadio Luis Franzini

Defensor SportingHome

0.95 : 1.05

expected goals

Racing (Montevideo)Away

31%Defensor

32%Draw

36%Racing (M)

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Racing (Montevideo) is Racing (Montevideo) to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction: Racing (Montevideo) to win
Chance: 36%
Most likely score: 0-0
Expected goals: Defensor Sporting 0.9, Racing (Montevideo) 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score: 41%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0

14% chanceFair price 6.981 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Defensor Sporting 31%, the draw 32% and Racing (Montevideo) 36%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Defensor Sporting took 6 points from their last 5 games and Racing (Montevideo) took 4 from 5. Defensor Sporting come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Defensor Sporting won 4 of their last 12 games at home. Racing (Montevideo) won 1 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Defensor Sporting score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.6. Racing (Montevideo) score 0.8 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Defensor Sporting games and 3 of Racing (Montevideo) games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Defensor Sporting won 0 and Racing (Montevideo) won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Racing (Montevideo) 0, Defensor Sporting 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Racing (M)recent form-1%
Racing (M)rest between games-2%

Defensor form D L W L WRacing (M) form D L L D WHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Defensor Sporting vs Racing (Montevideo): Racing (Montevideo) shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Defensor Sporting host Racing (Montevideo) in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Fri 23 Oct, 23:00 at Estadio Luis Franzini. Our prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Racing (Montevideo) is Racing (Montevideo) to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

Defensor Sporting form

Defensor Sporting have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Racing (Montevideo) form

Racing (Montevideo) have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Defensor Sporting won 0, Racing (Montevideo) won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Racing (Montevideo) 0, Defensor Sporting 0.

Our call

We expect Defensor Sporting to score about 0.9 goals and Racing (Montevideo) about 1.1. That points to Racing (Montevideo) to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 6.98.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Defensor	Racing (M)
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	6
Draws	6	8
Losses	10	6
Goals scored	20	15
Goals conceded	31	16
Scored per game	1.0	0.8
Conceded per game	1.6	0.8
Home record	4W 1D 7L	5W 3D 1L
Away record	0W 5D 3L	1W 5D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	45%
Both teams scored	65%	30%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	15%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	60%	1.66
Over 2.5 goals	32%	3.09
Over 3.5 goals	14%	6.99
Both teams to score	41%	2.46
Defensor Sporting or Draw	64%	1.57
Racing (Montevideo) or Draw	69%	1.45
Defensor Sporting to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.67
Racing (Montevideo) to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.43
Defensor Sporting clean sheet	35%	2.86
Racing (Montevideo) clean sheet	39%	2.59

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-014.3%

1-114.3%

0-113.4%

1-012.0%

0-27.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Racing (Montevideo)?

What is the score prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Racing (Montevideo)?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-1. We expect Defensor Sporting to score 0.9 goals and Racing (Montevideo) 1.1.

Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting vs Racing (Montevideo)?

Both teams to score has a 41% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Defensor Sporting last 20 games and 6 of Racing (Montevideo) last 20.

How are Defensor Sporting playing?

How are Racing (Montevideo) playing?

What happened when Defensor Sporting and Racing (Montevideo) last met?

It ended Racing (Montevideo) 0, Defensor Sporting 0. In the last 2 meetings Defensor Sporting won 0 and Racing (Montevideo) won 0.

What is the best bet for Defensor Sporting vs Racing (Montevideo)?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Defensor against Racing (M). A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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