Predictions › Sweden › Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF

AllsvenskanSun 20 Sept, 14:30 Sweden time

Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF prediction

Stora Valla

Degerfors IFHome

1.14 : 1.36

expected goals

Hammarby IFAway

30%Degerfors

28%Draw

41%Hammarby

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF is Hammarby IF to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Hammarby IF to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Degerfors IF 1.1, Hammarby IF 1.4
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.421 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Degerfors IF 30%, the draw 28% and Hammarby IF 41%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Degerfors IF took 9 points from their last 5 games and Hammarby IF took 10 from 5. Hammarby IF come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Degerfors IF won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Hammarby IF won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Degerfors IF score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. Hammarby IF score 2.3 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Degerfors IF games and 11 of Hammarby IF games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Degerfors IF won 0 and Hammarby IF won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Hammarby IF 4, Degerfors IF 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Degerforsrecent form+1%
Hammarbyrecent form+3%
Hammarbyrest between games-5%

Degerfors form W L L W WHammarby form W D L W WHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF: Hammarby IF shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Degerfors IF host Hammarby IF in the Allsvenskan on Sun 20 Sept, 14:30 at Stora Valla. Our prediction for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF is Hammarby IF to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Degerfors IF form

Degerfors IF have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Hammarby IF form

Hammarby IF have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 45 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Degerfors IF won 0, Hammarby IF won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Hammarby IF 4, Degerfors IF 0.

Our call

We expect Degerfors IF to score about 1.1 goals and Hammarby IF about 1.4. That points to Hammarby IF to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.42.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Degerfors	Hammarby
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	11
Draws	4	4
Losses	11	5
Goals scored	19	45
Goals conceded	31	20
Scored per game	0.9	2.3
Conceded per game	1.6	1.0
Home record	3W 2D 5L	8W 1D 1L
Away record	2W 2D 6L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	15%	35%
Both teams scored	40%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	1.39
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.19
Over 3.5 goals	24%	4.12
Both teams to score	51%	1.95
Degerfors IF or Draw	59%	1.70
Hammarby IF or Draw	70%	1.44
Degerfors IF to win and Over 2.5	17%	6.02
Hammarby IF to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.32
Degerfors IF clean sheet	26%	3.91
Hammarby IF clean sheet	32%	3.12

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%

0-110.4%

0-09.0%

1-28.7%

1-08.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF?

Our prediction for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF is Hammarby IF to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Degerfors IF to score 1.1 goals and Hammarby IF 1.4.

Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Degerfors IF last 20 games and 11 of Hammarby IF last 20.

How are Degerfors IF playing?

How are Hammarby IF playing?

What happened when Degerfors IF and Hammarby IF last met?

It ended Hammarby IF 4, Degerfors IF 0. In the last 2 meetings Degerfors IF won 0 and Hammarby IF won 1.

What is the best bet for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Degerfors against Hammarby. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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