Quick answer
Our prediction for Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers is Denver Broncos to win, with a 59% chance. We project Denver Broncos 22.8 and Los Angeles Chargers 20.0. Our best bet is Under 50.5 points at -286.
- Prediction
- Denver Broncos to win
- Chance
- 59%
- Projected score
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 20
- Projected total
- 42.8 points
- Best bet
- Under 50.5 points at -286
Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.
The eagle's three picks
✓ Eagle safe pick
Under 50.5 points
74% chanceFair price -2861 unit
Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.
Why we think this
- 1
What our numbers sayThe model gives Los Angeles Chargers 41% and Denver Broncos 59%. The bookmakers agree and make Denver Broncos the favourite at -135.
- 2
Recent formLos Angeles Chargers won 0 of their last 5 and Denver Broncos won 3 of their last 5. Denver Broncos come in with the better run.
- 3
Home and awayLos Angeles Chargers won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Denver Broncos won 6 of their last 7 on the road.
- 4
ScoringLos Angeles Chargers score 19.4 points a game and let in 21.4. Denver Broncos score 22.9 and let in 19.1. Their recent games average 40.9 and 42.0 points in total, and the market line is 43.5.
- 5
Head to headIn the last 2 meetings, Los Angeles Chargers won 1 and Denver Broncos won 1. The last one ended Denver Broncos 19, Los Angeles Chargers 3.
- 6
The safest betUnder 50.5 points has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.
Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.
What moved our number
Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.
Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.
Match previewDenver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers: Denver Broncos are favourites
By the EagleEyeOdds desk
The big picture
Los Angeles Chargers host Denver Broncos in the NFL on Sun 11 Oct, 16:05 at SoFi Stadium. Our prediction for Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers is Denver Broncos to win, with a 59% chance. We project Denver Broncos 22.8 and Los Angeles Chargers 20.0. Our best bet is Under 50.5 points at -286.
Los Angeles Chargers form
Los Angeles Chargers have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 389 points scored and 429 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.
Denver Broncos form
Denver Broncos have 16 wins and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 458 points scored and 383 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 1 loss from 7. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.
Head to head
These two have met 2 times in our records. Los Angeles Chargers won 1, Denver Broncos won 1. Last time out it finished Denver Broncos 19, Los Angeles Chargers 3.
Our call
We expect Denver Broncos to score about 22.8 points and Los Angeles Chargers about 20.0. That points to Denver Broncos to win. Our safest bet is Under 50.5 points at -286.
Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.
Team records
Last 20 games in all competitions.
Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.
Price check against Draft Kings
Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.
Spread and total at every line
Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Chargers +3.5 wins if Chargers win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.
Questions people ask
Who will win Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers?
Our prediction for Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers is Denver Broncos to win, with a 59% chance. We project Denver Broncos 22.8 and Los Angeles Chargers 20.0. Our best bet is Under 50.5 points at -286.
What is the projected score for Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers?
We project Denver Broncos 22.8 and Los Angeles Chargers 20.0, about 42.8 points in total.
How are Los Angeles Chargers playing?
Los Angeles Chargers have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 389 points scored and 429 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.
How are Denver Broncos playing?
Denver Broncos have 16 wins and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 458 points scored and 383 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 1 loss from 7. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.
What happened when Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos last met?
It ended Denver Broncos 19, Los Angeles Chargers 3. In the last 2 meetings Los Angeles Chargers won 1 and Denver Broncos won 1.
What is the best bet for Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers?
Under 50.5 points at -286, with a 74% chance.
Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.
Important, please read before you bet
- These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Chargers against Broncos. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
- We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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- Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
- No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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