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Predictions › United States › Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans
NBAWed 28 Oct, 20:00 United States time

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction

Smoothie King Center

Denver NuggetsAway
122.3 : 118.5
projected points
New Orleans PelicansHome
62%Nuggets
38%Pelicans
Eagle safe pickNuggets +4.5
-310

Quick answer

Our prediction for Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans is Denver Nuggets to win, with a 62% chance. We project Denver Nuggets 122.3 and New Orleans Pelicans 118.5. Our best bet is Nuggets +4.5 at -310.

Prediction
Denver Nuggets to win
Chance
62%
Projected score
Denver Nuggets 122, New Orleans Pelicans 119
Projected total
240.8 points
Best bet
Nuggets +4.5 at -310

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Nuggets +4.5
76% chanceFair price -3102 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Pelicans to win
38% chanceFair price +1611 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives New Orleans Pelicans 38% and Denver Nuggets 62%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    New Orleans Pelicans won 3 of their last 5 and Denver Nuggets won 3 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    New Orleans Pelicans won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Denver Nuggets won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    New Orleans Pelicans score 114.6 points a game and let in 117.6. Denver Nuggets score 120.5 and let in 116.3. Their recent games average 232.2 and 236.8 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, New Orleans Pelicans won 0 and Denver Nuggets won 3. The last one ended New Orleans Pelicans 116, Denver Nuggets 122.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Nuggets +4.5 has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Pelicansrest between games-2%
  • Nuggetsrest between games-5%
  • Nuggetsteam news-1%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans: Denver Nuggets are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

New Orleans Pelicans host Denver Nuggets in the NBA on Wed 28 Oct, 20:00 at Smoothie King Center. Our prediction for Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans is Denver Nuggets to win, with a 62% chance. We project Denver Nuggets 122.3 and New Orleans Pelicans 118.5. Our best bet is Nuggets +4.5 at -310.

New Orleans Pelicans form

New Orleans Pelicans have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 2292 points scored and 2352 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Denver Nuggets form

Denver Nuggets have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 2410 points scored and 2327 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. New Orleans Pelicans won 0, Denver Nuggets won 3. Last time out it finished New Orleans Pelicans 116, Denver Nuggets 122.

Our call

We expect Denver Nuggets to score about 122.3 points and New Orleans Pelicans about 118.5. That points to Denver Nuggets to win. Our safest bet is Nuggets +4.5 at -310. Our bold bet is Pelicans to win at +161.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PelicansNuggets
Games played2020
Wins814
Losses126
Points scored22922410
Points conceded23522327
Scored per game114.6120.5
Conceded per game117.6116.3
Home record6W 3L10W 2L
Away record2W 9L4W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Pelicans spreadCoversFair
Pelicans -2.531%+226
Pelicans +0.540%+153
Pelicans +3.549%+104
Pelicans +6.559%-141
Pelicans +9.568%-208
Total pointsOverUnder
234.564%36%
237.557%43%
240.551%49%
243.544%56%
246.538%62%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Pelicans +3.5 wins if Pelicans win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NBA

Julian Strawther Out Six Weeks With Left Knee Injury

Denver Nuggets guard Julian Strawther sprained his left knee during a preseason game against the Clippers and will be re-evaluated in six weeks.

17 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans?

Our prediction for Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans is Denver Nuggets to win, with a 62% chance. We project Denver Nuggets 122.3 and New Orleans Pelicans 118.5. Our best bet is Nuggets +4.5 at -310.

What is the projected score for Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans?

We project Denver Nuggets 122.3 and New Orleans Pelicans 118.5, about 240.8 points in total.

How are New Orleans Pelicans playing?

New Orleans Pelicans have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 2292 points scored and 2352 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Denver Nuggets playing?

Denver Nuggets have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 2410 points scored and 2327 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets last met?

It ended New Orleans Pelicans 116, Denver Nuggets 122. In the last 3 meetings New Orleans Pelicans won 0 and Denver Nuggets won 3.

What is the best bet for Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans?

Nuggets +4.5 at -310, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Pelicans against Nuggets. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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