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Predictions › United States › Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder
NBAThu 22 Oct, 21:30 United States time

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction

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Denver NuggetsAway
113.0 : 119.7
projected points
Oklahoma City ThunderHome
27%Nuggets
73%Thunder
Eagle safe pickThunder to win
-278

Quick answer

Our prediction for Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder is Oklahoma City Thunder to win, with a 73% chance. We project Denver Nuggets 113.0 and Oklahoma City Thunder 119.7. Our best bet is Thunder to win at -278.

Prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Chance
73%
Projected score
Denver Nuggets 113, Oklahoma City Thunder 120
Projected total
232.7 points
Best bet
Thunder to win at -278

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Thunder to win
73% chancePrice -2781 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Oklahoma City Thunder 73% and Denver Nuggets 27%. The bookmakers agree and make Oklahoma City Thunder the favourite at -278.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Oklahoma City Thunder won 0 of their last 5 and Denver Nuggets won 3 of their last 5. Denver Nuggets come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Oklahoma City Thunder won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Denver Nuggets won 4 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Oklahoma City Thunder score 114.5 points a game and let in 112.3. Denver Nuggets score 121.6 and let in 116.7. Their recent games average 226.7 and 238.3 points in total, and the market line is 232.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Oklahoma City Thunder won 4 and Denver Nuggets won 1. The last one ended Denver Nuggets 127, Oklahoma City Thunder 107.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Thunder to win has a 73% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Thunderrest between games-5%
  • Nuggetsrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Oklahoma City Thunder are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Oklahoma City Thunder host Denver Nuggets in the NBA on Thu 22 Oct, 21:30 at Paycom Center. Our prediction for Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder is Oklahoma City Thunder to win, with a 73% chance. We project Denver Nuggets 113.0 and Oklahoma City Thunder 119.7. Our best bet is Thunder to win at -278.

Oklahoma City Thunder form

Oklahoma City Thunder have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 2289 points scored and 2245 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Denver Nuggets form

Denver Nuggets have 15 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 2432 points scored and 2334 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 3 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Oklahoma City Thunder won 4, Denver Nuggets won 1. Last time out it finished Denver Nuggets 127, Oklahoma City Thunder 107.

Our call

We expect Denver Nuggets to score about 113.0 points and Oklahoma City Thunder about 119.7. That points to Oklahoma City Thunder to win. Our safest bet is Thunder to win at -278.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ThunderNuggets
Games played2020
Wins1115
Losses95
Points scored22892432
Points conceded22452334
Scored per game114.5121.6
Conceded per game112.3116.7
Home record6W 5L11W 2L
Away record5W 4L4W 3L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Thunder to win73%-268-278-0.9%
Nuggets to win27%+265+225-11.0%
Thunder -7.546%+119-110-13.0%
Nuggets +7.550%+101-110-5.1%
Over 232.5 points48%+109-110-8.5%
Under 232.5 points47%+111-110-9.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Thunder spreadCoversFair
Thunder -12.532%+211
Thunder -9.541%+143
Thunder -6.551%-103
Thunder -3.560%-151
Thunder -0.569%-222
Total pointsOverUnder
226.563%37%
229.557%43%
232.550%50%
235.544%56%
238.537%63%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Thunder +3.5 wins if Thunder win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder?

Our prediction for Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder is Oklahoma City Thunder to win, with a 73% chance. We project Denver Nuggets 113.0 and Oklahoma City Thunder 119.7. Our best bet is Thunder to win at -278.

What is the projected score for Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder?

We project Denver Nuggets 113.0 and Oklahoma City Thunder 119.7, about 232.7 points in total.

How are Oklahoma City Thunder playing?

Oklahoma City Thunder have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 2289 points scored and 2245 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Denver Nuggets playing?

Denver Nuggets have 15 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 2432 points scored and 2334 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 3 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets last met?

It ended Denver Nuggets 127, Oklahoma City Thunder 107. In the last 5 meetings Oklahoma City Thunder won 4 and Denver Nuggets won 1.

What is the best bet for Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder?

Thunder to win at -278, with a 73% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Thunder against Nuggets. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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