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Predictions › Chile › Deportes Concepcion vs Unión La Calera
Chilean Primera DivisionSun 11 Oct, 20:30 Chile time

Deportes Concepcion vs Unión La Calera prediction

Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Deportes ConcepcionHome
1.51 : 0.87
expected goals
Unión La CaleraAway
52%Concepcion
28%Draw
21%Unión La Calera
Eagle safe pickDeportes Concepcion or Draw
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportes Concepcion vs Unión La Calera is Deportes Concepcion to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Deportes Concepcion or Draw at 1.29.

Prediction
Deportes Concepcion to win
Chance
52%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Deportes Concepcion 1.5, Unión La Calera 0.9
Best bet
Deportes Concepcion or Draw at 1.29
Both teams to score
46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Deportes Concepcion or Draw
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Deportes Concepcion to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.711 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Deportes Concepcion 52%, the draw 28% and Unión La Calera 21%. The bookmakers agree and make Deportes Concepcion the favourite at 2.00.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Deportes Concepcion took 8 points from their last 5 games and Unión La Calera took 4 from 5. Deportes Concepcion come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Deportes Concepcion won 5 of their last 12 games at home. Unión La Calera won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Deportes Concepcion score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.0. Unión La Calera score 0.9 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Deportes Concepcion games and 13 of Unión La Calera games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Deportes Concepcion won 0 and Unión La Calera won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Unión La Calera 1, Deportes Concepcion 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Deportes Concepcion or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Unión La Calerarecent form-1%
Concepcion form L W W D LUnión La Calera form D D W L LHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportes Concepcion vs Unión La Calera: Deportes Concepcion are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportes Concepcion host Unión La Calera in the Chilean Primera Division on Sun 11 Oct, 20:30 at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo. Our prediction for Deportes Concepcion vs Unión La Calera is Deportes Concepcion to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Deportes Concepcion or Draw at 1.29.

Deportes Concepcion form

Deportes Concepcion have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Unión La Calera form

Unión La Calera have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Deportes Concepcion won 0, Unión La Calera won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Unión La Calera 1, Deportes Concepcion 0.

Our call

We expect Deportes Concepcion to score about 1.5 goals and Unión La Calera about 0.9. That points to Deportes Concepcion to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Deportes Concepcion or Draw at 1.29. Our bold bet is Deportes Concepcion to win and Over 2.5 at 3.71.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ConcepcionUnión La Calera
Games played2020
Wins94
Draws45
Losses711
Goals scored2319
Goals conceded2033
Scored per game1.10.9
Conceded per game1.01.6
Home record5W 3D 4L3W 3D 5L
Away record4W 1D 3L1W 2D 6L
Clean sheets40%25%
Both teams scored30%50%
Over 2.5 goals25%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Deportes Concepcion to win49%2.062.00-2.9%
A Draw27%3.733.15-15.4%
Unión La Calera to win21%4.853.70-23.7%
Over 2.5 goals40%2.512.15-14.3%
Under 2.5 goals54%1.841.59-13.8%
Deportes Concepcion -0.546%2.191.91-12.8%
Unión La Calera +0.548%2.071.71-17.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals69%1.44
Over 2.5 goals42%2.36
Over 3.5 goals22%4.63
Both teams to score46%2.18
Deportes Concepcion or Draw79%1.26
Unión La Calera or Draw48%2.06
Deportes Concepcion to win and Over 2.528%3.61
Unión La Calera to win and Over 2.510%9.93
Deportes Concepcion clean sheet42%2.38
Unión La Calera clean sheet22%4.51

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.3%
1-112.9%
2-010.6%
0-010.0%
2-19.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportes Concepcion vs Unión La Calera?

Our prediction for Deportes Concepcion vs Unión La Calera is Deportes Concepcion to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Deportes Concepcion or Draw at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Deportes Concepcion vs Unión La Calera?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Deportes Concepcion to score 1.5 goals and Unión La Calera 0.9.

Will both teams score in Deportes Concepcion vs Unión La Calera?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of Deportes Concepcion last 20 games and 10 of Unión La Calera last 20.

How are Deportes Concepcion playing?

Deportes Concepcion have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Unión La Calera playing?

Unión La Calera have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Deportes Concepcion and Unión La Calera last met?

It ended Unión La Calera 1, Deportes Concepcion 0. In the last 1 meeting Deportes Concepcion won 0 and Unión La Calera won 1.

What is the best bet for Deportes Concepcion vs Unión La Calera?

Deportes Concepcion or Draw at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Concepcion against Unión La Calera. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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