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Predictions › Chile › Deportes Limache vs La Serena
Chilean Primera DivisionSun 22 Nov, 23:30 Chile time

Deportes Limache vs La Serena prediction

Estadio Lucio Fariña Fernández

Deportes LimacheHome
1.73 : 1.30
expected goals
La SerenaAway
47%Limache
25%Draw
28%La Serena
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportes Limache vs La Serena is Deportes Limache to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Deportes Limache to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Deportes Limache 1.7, La Serena 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Deportes Limache to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.181 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Deportes Limache 47%, the draw 25% and La Serena 28%. The bookmakers agree and make Deportes Limache the favourite at 2.10.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Deportes Limache took 7 points from their last 5 games and La Serena took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Deportes Limache won 5 of their last 10 games at home. La Serena won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Deportes Limache score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.6. La Serena score 1.6 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Deportes Limache games and 12 of La Serena games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Deportes Limache won 1 and La Serena won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended La Serena 4, Deportes Limache 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • La Serenarecent form-1%
Limache form L W W D LLa Serena form D D W L LHome edge in this league 33% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportes Limache vs La Serena: Deportes Limache are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportes Limache host La Serena in the Chilean Primera Division on Sun 22 Nov, 23:30 at Estadio Lucio Fariña Fernández. Our prediction for Deportes Limache vs La Serena is Deportes Limache to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Deportes Limache form

Deportes Limache have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

La Serena form

La Serena have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Deportes Limache won 1, La Serena won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished La Serena 4, Deportes Limache 1.

Our call

We expect Deportes Limache to score about 1.7 goals and La Serena about 1.3. That points to Deportes Limache to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Deportes Limache to win and Over 2.5 at 3.18.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LimacheLa Serena
Games played2020
Wins87
Draws27
Losses106
Goals scored3231
Goals conceded3235
Scored per game1.61.6
Conceded per game1.61.8
Home record5W 1D 4L5W 2D 3L
Away record3W 1D 6L2W 5D 3L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored45%60%
Over 2.5 goals70%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Deportes Limache to win44%2.262.10-7.3%
A Draw24%4.123.55-13.8%
La Serena to win28%3.593.10-13.6%
Over 2.5 goals53%1.871.56-17.0%
Under 2.5 goals40%2.512.25-10.3%
Deportes Limache -0.543%2.302.00-13.1%
La Serena +0.550%2.011.67-17.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.23
Over 2.5 goals58%1.71
Over 3.5 goals36%2.78
Both teams to score61%1.65
Deportes Limache or Draw72%1.40
La Serena or Draw53%1.88
Deportes Limache to win and Over 2.532%3.14
La Serena to win and Over 2.519%5.38
Deportes Limache clean sheet27%3.68
La Serena clean sheet18%5.63

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.5%
2-19.4%
1-07.7%
2-07.2%
1-27.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportes Limache vs La Serena?

Our prediction for Deportes Limache vs La Serena is Deportes Limache to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Deportes Limache vs La Serena?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Deportes Limache to score 1.7 goals and La Serena 1.3.

Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs La Serena?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Deportes Limache last 20 games and 12 of La Serena last 20.

How are Deportes Limache playing?

Deportes Limache have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

How are La Serena playing?

La Serena have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Deportes Limache and La Serena last met?

It ended La Serena 4, Deportes Limache 1. In the last 2 meetings Deportes Limache won 1 and La Serena won 1.

What is the best bet for Deportes Limache vs La Serena?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Limache against La Serena. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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