Predictions › Chile › Deportes Limache vs Palestino

Chilean Primera DivisionSun 11 Oct, 23:00 Chile time

Deportes Limache vs Palestino prediction

Estadio Lucio Fariña Fernández

Deportes LimacheHome

1.69 : 1.27

expected goals

PalestinoAway

47%Limache

25%Draw

28%Palestino

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportes Limache vs Palestino is Deportes Limache to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction: Deportes Limache to win
Chance: 47%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Deportes Limache 1.7, Palestino 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Deportes Limache to win and Over 2.5

30% chanceFair price 3.311 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Deportes Limache 47%, the draw 25% and Palestino 28%. The bookmakers agree and make Deportes Limache the favourite at 2.15.
2
Recent form
Deportes Limache took 9 points from their last 5 games and Palestino took 9 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Deportes Limache won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Palestino won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Deportes Limache score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. Palestino score 1.7 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Deportes Limache games and 12 of Palestino games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Deportes Limache won 0 and Palestino won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Palestino 1, Deportes Limache 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Limacherecent form+1%
Palestinorecent form+1%

Limache form L W W L WPalestino form L W L W WHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportes Limache vs Palestino: Deportes Limache are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportes Limache host Palestino in the Chilean Primera Division on Sun 11 Oct, 23:00 at Estadio Lucio Fariña Fernández. Our prediction for Deportes Limache vs Palestino is Deportes Limache to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Deportes Limache form

Deportes Limache have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Palestino form

Palestino have 11 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Deportes Limache won 0, Palestino won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Palestino 1, Deportes Limache 0.

Our call

We expect Deportes Limache to score about 1.7 goals and Palestino about 1.3. That points to Deportes Limache to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Deportes Limache to win and Over 2.5 at 3.31.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Limache	Palestino
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	11
Draws	2	1
Losses	10	8
Goals scored	37	34
Goals conceded	32	29
Scored per game	1.9	1.7
Conceded per game	1.6	1.4
Home record	5W 0D 4L	7W 1D 2L
Away record	3W 2D 6L	4W 0D 6L
Clean sheets	25%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Deportes Limache to win	44%	2.28	2.15	-5.5%
A Draw	25%	4.06	3.60	-11.2%
Palestino to win	27%	3.66	2.90	-20.8%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	1.81	1.54	-14.9%
Under 2.5 goals	39%	2.57	2.25	-12.5%
Deportes Limache -0.5	42%	2.38	2.05	-13.8%
Palestino +0.5	52%	1.92	1.61	-16.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1.25
Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.76
Over 3.5 goals	34%	2.91
Both teams to score	59%	1.69
Deportes Limache or Draw	72%	1.39
Palestino or Draw	53%	1.88
Deportes Limache to win and Over 2.5	31%	3.20
Palestino to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.56
Deportes Limache clean sheet	28%	3.55
Palestino clean sheet	18%	5.44

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%

2-19.4%

1-08.1%

2-07.4%

1-27.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportes Limache vs Palestino?

Our prediction for Deportes Limache vs Palestino is Deportes Limache to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Deportes Limache vs Palestino?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Deportes Limache to score 1.7 goals and Palestino 1.3.

Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Palestino?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Deportes Limache last 20 games and 12 of Palestino last 20.

How are Deportes Limache playing?

How are Palestino playing?

What happened when Deportes Limache and Palestino last met?

It ended Palestino 1, Deportes Limache 0. In the last 2 meetings Deportes Limache won 0 and Palestino won 2.

What is the best bet for Deportes Limache vs Palestino?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Limache against Palestino. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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