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Predictions › Colombia › Deportes Tolima vs América de Cali
Colombian Primera ASun 20 Sept, 23:10 Colombia time

Deportes Tolima vs América de Cali prediction

Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Deportes TolimaHome
1.18 : 0.93
expected goals
América de CaliAway
41%Tolima
31%Draw
28%América Cali
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportes Tolima vs América de Cali is Deportes Tolima to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction
Deportes Tolima to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Deportes Tolima 1.2, América de Cali 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score
43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.091 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Deportes Tolima 41%, the draw 31% and América de Cali 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Deportes Tolima took 7 points from their last 5 games and América de Cali took 11 from 5. América de Cali come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Deportes Tolima won 6 of their last 11 games at home. América de Cali won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Deportes Tolima score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.1. América de Cali score 1.6 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Deportes Tolima games and 8 of América de Cali games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Deportes Tolima won 0 and América de Cali won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended América de Cali 1, Deportes Tolima 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • América Calirecent form+4%
  • Tolimarest between games-5%
Tolima form L W W L DAmérica Cali form W W D W DHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportes Tolima vs América de Cali: Deportes Tolima shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportes Tolima host América de Cali in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 20 Sept, 23:10 at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Our prediction for Deportes Tolima vs América de Cali is Deportes Tolima to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Deportes Tolima form

Deportes Tolima have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, D, newest first.

América de Cali form

América de Cali have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Deportes Tolima won 0, América de Cali won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished América de Cali 1, Deportes Tolima 1.

Our call

We expect Deportes Tolima to score about 1.2 goals and América de Cali about 0.9. That points to Deportes Tolima to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.09.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

TolimaAmérica Cali
Games played2020
Wins911
Draws35
Losses84
Goals scored2432
Goals conceded2317
Scored per game1.21.6
Conceded per game1.10.8
Home record6W 2D 3L7W 3D 0L
Away record3W 1D 5L4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets30%50%
Both teams scored45%35%
Over 2.5 goals55%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals63%1.59
Over 2.5 goals35%2.83
Over 3.5 goals16%6.13
Both teams to score43%2.34
Deportes Tolima or Draw72%1.39
América de Cali or Draw59%1.69
Deportes Tolima to win and Over 2.519%5.29
América de Cali to win and Over 2.512%8.17
Deportes Tolima clean sheet40%2.53
América de Cali clean sheet31%3.26

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.1%
1-013.5%
0-012.9%
0-110.5%
2-08.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportes Tolima vs América de Cali?

Our prediction for Deportes Tolima vs América de Cali is Deportes Tolima to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Deportes Tolima vs América de Cali?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Deportes Tolima to score 1.2 goals and América de Cali 0.9.

Will both teams score in Deportes Tolima vs América de Cali?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Deportes Tolima last 20 games and 7 of América de Cali last 20.

How are Deportes Tolima playing?

Deportes Tolima have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, D, newest first.

How are América de Cali playing?

América de Cali have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Deportes Tolima and América de Cali last met?

It ended América de Cali 1, Deportes Tolima 1. In the last 1 meeting Deportes Tolima won 0 and América de Cali won 0.

What is the best bet for Deportes Tolima vs América de Cali?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Tolima against América Cali. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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