Predictions › Colombia › Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios

Colombian Primera ASat 7 Nov, 21:05 Colombia time

Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios prediction

Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Deportes TolimaHome

1.20 : 1.14

expected goals

MillonariosAway

37%Tolima

30%Draw

34%Millonarios

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios is Deportes Tolima to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction: Deportes Tolima to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Deportes Tolima 1.2, Millonarios 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score: 48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

79% chanceFair price 1.262 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.161 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Deportes Tolima 37%, the draw 30% and Millonarios 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Deportes Tolima took 2 points from their last 5 games and Millonarios took 7 from 5. Millonarios come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Deportes Tolima won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Millonarios won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Deportes Tolima score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.3. Millonarios score 1.5 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Deportes Tolima games and 7 of Millonarios games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Deportes Tolima won 0 and Millonarios won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Millonarios 2, Deportes Tolima 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Tolimarecent form-3%
Tolimarest between games-2%

Tolima form D L L D DMillonarios form D W D L DHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios: Deportes Tolima shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportes Tolima host Millonarios in the Colombian Primera A on Sat 7 Nov, 21:05 at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Our prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios is Deportes Tolima to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Deportes Tolima form

Deportes Tolima have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, D, newest first.

Millonarios form

Millonarios have 7 wins, 10 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Deportes Tolima won 0, Millonarios won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Millonarios 2, Deportes Tolima 0.

Our call

We expect Deportes Tolima to score about 1.2 goals and Millonarios about 1.1. That points to Deportes Tolima to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.16.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Tolima	Millonarios
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	7
Draws	6	10
Losses	9	3
Goals scored	20	30
Goals conceded	26	20
Scored per game	1.0	1.5
Conceded per game	1.3	1.0
Home record	3W 3D 3L	4W 4D 1L
Away record	2W 3D 6L	3W 6D 2L
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	69%	1.46
Over 2.5 goals	41%	2.41
Over 3.5 goals	21%	4.79
Both teams to score	48%	2.07
Deportes Tolima or Draw	66%	1.51
Millonarios or Draw	63%	1.58
Deportes Tolima to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.29
Millonarios to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.79
Deportes Tolima clean sheet	32%	3.13
Millonarios clean sheet	30%	3.32

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%

1-010.8%

0-010.4%

0-110.2%

2-17.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?

Our prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios is Deportes Tolima to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Deportes Tolima to score 1.2 goals and Millonarios 1.1.

Will both teams score in Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Deportes Tolima last 20 games and 13 of Millonarios last 20.

How are Deportes Tolima playing?

How are Millonarios playing?

What happened when Deportes Tolima and Millonarios last met?

It ended Millonarios 2, Deportes Tolima 0. In the last 1 meeting Deportes Tolima won 0 and Millonarios won 1.

What is the best bet for Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Tolima against Millonarios. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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