Predictions › Peru › Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos

Peruvian Liga 1Sun 8 Nov, 23:00 Peru time

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos prediction

Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Deportivo GarcilasoHome

2.23 : 1.07

expected goals

Comerciantes UnidosAway

63%Garcilaso

20%Draw

17%Comer Unid

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos is Deportivo Garcilaso to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction: Deportivo Garcilaso to win
Chance: 63%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Deportivo Garcilaso 2.2, Comerciantes Unidos 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 1.182 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Deportivo Garcilaso to win and Over 2.5

44% chanceFair price 2.261 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Deportivo Garcilaso 63%, the draw 20% and Comerciantes Unidos 17%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Deportivo Garcilaso took 6 points from their last 5 games and Comerciantes Unidos took 5 from 5. Deportivo Garcilaso come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Deportivo Garcilaso won 10 of their last 11 games at home. Comerciantes Unidos won 1 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.8 goals a game and let in 0.8. Comerciantes Unidos score 1.3 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Deportivo Garcilaso games and 10 of Comerciantes Unidos games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Deportivo Garcilaso won 0 and Comerciantes Unidos won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Comerciantes Unidos 0, Deportivo Garcilaso 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Comer Unidrecent form-1%
Garcilasorest between games-5%
Comer Unidrest between games-5%

Garcilaso form D W L L WComer Unid form D W L D LHome edge in this league 45% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos: Deportivo Garcilaso are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportivo Garcilaso host Comerciantes Unidos in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sun 8 Nov, 23:00 at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Our prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos is Deportivo Garcilaso to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Deportivo Garcilaso form

Deportivo Garcilaso have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 10 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Comerciantes Unidos form

Comerciantes Unidos have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Deportivo Garcilaso won 0, Comerciantes Unidos won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Comerciantes Unidos 0, Deportivo Garcilaso 0.

Our call

We expect Deportivo Garcilaso to score about 2.2 goals and Comerciantes Unidos about 1.1. That points to Deportivo Garcilaso to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Deportivo Garcilaso to win and Over 2.5 at 2.26.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Garcilaso	Comer Unid
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	4
Draws	2	7
Losses	5	9
Goals scored	36	26
Goals conceded	17	30
Scored per game	1.8	1.3
Conceded per game	0.8	1.5
Home record	10W 0D 1L	3W 4D 2L
Away record	3W 2D 4L	1W 3D 7L
Clean sheets	45%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	85%	1.18
Over 2.5 goals	64%	1.56
Over 3.5 goals	42%	2.38
Both teams to score	59%	1.69
Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw	83%	1.20
Comerciantes Unidos or Draw	37%	2.70
Deportivo Garcilaso to win and Over 2.5	46%	2.17
Comerciantes Unidos to win and Over 2.5	11%	9.03
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet	34%	2.93
Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet	11%	9.27

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.8%

1-19.3%

2-09.1%

1-07.7%

3-17.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Our prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos is Deportivo Garcilaso to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Deportivo Garcilaso to score 2.2 goals and Comerciantes Unidos 1.1.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Deportivo Garcilaso last 20 games and 13 of Comerciantes Unidos last 20.

How are Deportivo Garcilaso playing?

How are Comerciantes Unidos playing?

What happened when Deportivo Garcilaso and Comerciantes Unidos last met?

It ended Comerciantes Unidos 0, Deportivo Garcilaso 0. In the last 1 meeting Deportivo Garcilaso won 0 and Comerciantes Unidos won 0.

What is the best bet for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Garcilaso against Comer Unid. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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