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Predictions › Peru › Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario
Peruvian Liga 1Sat 19 Sept, 23:00 Peru time

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario prediction

Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Deportivo GarcilasoHome
1.74 : 1.37
expected goals
UniversitarioAway
46%Garcilaso
25%Draw
30%Universitario
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario is Deportivo Garcilaso to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction
Deportivo Garcilaso to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Deportivo Garcilaso 1.7, Universitario 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Deportivo Garcilaso to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 3.361 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Deportivo Garcilaso 46%, the draw 25% and Universitario 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Deportivo Garcilaso took 13 points from their last 5 games and Universitario took 13 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Deportivo Garcilaso won 9 of their last 10 games at home. Universitario won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.5 goals a game and let in 0.8. Universitario score 1.8 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Deportivo Garcilaso games and 13 of Universitario games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Deportivo Garcilaso won 0 and Universitario won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Universitario 4, Deportivo Garcilaso 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Garcilasorecent form+6%
  • Universitariorecent form+6%
  • Universitariorest between games-5%
Garcilaso form W W W D WUniversitario form W D W W WHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario: Deportivo Garcilaso are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportivo Garcilaso host Universitario in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sat 19 Sept, 23:00 at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Our prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario is Deportivo Garcilaso to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Deportivo Garcilaso form

Deportivo Garcilaso have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Universitario form

Universitario have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Deportivo Garcilaso won 0, Universitario won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Universitario 4, Deportivo Garcilaso 1.

Our call

We expect Deportivo Garcilaso to score about 1.7 goals and Universitario about 1.4. That points to Deportivo Garcilaso to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Deportivo Garcilaso to win and Over 2.5 at 3.36.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

GarcilasoUniversitario
Games played2020
Wins1210
Draws46
Losses44
Goals scored3035
Goals conceded1722
Scored per game1.51.8
Conceded per game0.81.1
Home record9W 1D 0L5W 3D 2L
Away record3W 3D 4L5W 3D 2L
Clean sheets45%25%
Both teams scored45%65%
Over 2.5 goals40%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.22
Over 2.5 goals60%1.67
Over 3.5 goals38%2.66
Both teams to score62%1.61
Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw70%1.42
Universitario or Draw54%1.84
Deportivo Garcilaso to win and Over 2.532%3.16
Universitario to win and Over 2.520%4.99
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet25%3.93
Universitario clean sheet18%5.67

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%
2-19.2%
1-27.3%
1-07.1%
2-06.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario?

Our prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario is Deportivo Garcilaso to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Deportivo Garcilaso to score 1.7 goals and Universitario 1.4.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Deportivo Garcilaso last 20 games and 13 of Universitario last 20.

How are Deportivo Garcilaso playing?

Deportivo Garcilaso have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Universitario playing?

Universitario have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Deportivo Garcilaso and Universitario last met?

It ended Universitario 4, Deportivo Garcilaso 1. In the last 2 meetings Deportivo Garcilaso won 0 and Universitario won 1.

What is the best bet for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Garcilaso against Universitario. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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