Predictions › Uruguay › Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro

Uruguayan Primera DivisionSat 14 Nov, 19:30 Uruguay time

Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro prediction

Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

Deportivo MaldonadoHome

2.15 : 0.70

expected goals

CerroAway

70%Maldonado

19%Draw

10%Cerro

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro is Deportivo Maldonado to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: Deportivo Maldonado to win
Chance: 70%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Deportivo Maldonado 2.1, Cerro 0.7
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Deportivo Maldonado to win and Over 2.5

43% chanceFair price 2.341 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Deportivo Maldonado 70%, the draw 19% and Cerro 10%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Deportivo Maldonado took 8 points from their last 5 games and Cerro took 4 from 5. Deportivo Maldonado come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Deportivo Maldonado won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Cerro won 4 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Deportivo Maldonado score 1.5 goals a game and let in 0.8. Cerro score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Deportivo Maldonado games and 10 of Cerro games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Deportivo Maldonado won 1 and Cerro won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Cerro 0, Deportivo Maldonado 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Maldonadorecent form+1%
Cerrorecent form-3%
Maldonadorest between games-2%

Maldonado form D W L D WCerro form L L D W LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro: Deportivo Maldonado are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportivo Maldonado host Cerro in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sat 14 Nov, 19:30 at Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel. Our prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro is Deportivo Maldonado to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Deportivo Maldonado form

Deportivo Maldonado have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Cerro form

Cerro have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Deportivo Maldonado won 1, Cerro won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Cerro 0, Deportivo Maldonado 1.

Our call

We expect Deportivo Maldonado to score about 2.1 goals and Cerro about 0.7. That points to Deportivo Maldonado to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Deportivo Maldonado to win and Over 2.5 at 2.34.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Maldonado	Cerro
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	8
Draws	7	3
Losses	4	9
Goals scored	30	21
Goals conceded	16	29
Scored per game	1.5	1.1
Conceded per game	0.8	1.4
Home record	6W 5D 0L	4W 1D 4L
Away record	3W 2D 4L	4W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	45%	25%
Both teams scored	40%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.84
Over 3.5 goals	32%	3.13
Both teams to score	45%	2.22
Deportivo Maldonado or Draw	90%	1.11
Cerro or Draw	30%	3.37
Deportivo Maldonado to win and Over 2.5	45%	2.22
Cerro to win and Over 2.5	5%	18.79
Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet	50%	2.01
Cerro clean sheet	12%	8.59

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-013.4%

1-011.9%

3-09.6%

2-19.4%

1-19.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?

Our prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro is Deportivo Maldonado to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 3-0. We expect Deportivo Maldonado to score 2.1 goals and Cerro 0.7.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Deportivo Maldonado last 20 games and 11 of Cerro last 20.

How are Deportivo Maldonado playing?

How are Cerro playing?

What happened when Deportivo Maldonado and Cerro last met?

It ended Cerro 0, Deportivo Maldonado 1. In the last 1 meeting Deportivo Maldonado won 1 and Cerro won 0.

What is the best bet for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Maldonado against Cerro. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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