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Predictions › Uruguay › Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSat 24 Oct, 22:30 Uruguay time

Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio prediction

Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

Deportivo MaldonadoHome
1.68 : 0.48
expected goals
DanubioAway
67%Maldonado
24%Draw
9%Danubio
Eagle safe pickDeportivo Maldonado draw no bet
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio is Deportivo Maldonado to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Deportivo Maldonado draw no bet at 1.17.

Prediction
Deportivo Maldonado to win
Chance
67%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Deportivo Maldonado 1.7, Danubio 0.5
Best bet
Deportivo Maldonado draw no bet at 1.17
Both teams to score
31%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Deportivo Maldonado draw no bet
86% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Deportivo Maldonado to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.411 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Deportivo Maldonado 67%, the draw 24% and Danubio 9%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Deportivo Maldonado took 10 points from their last 5 games and Danubio took 5 from 5. Deportivo Maldonado come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Deportivo Maldonado won 6 of their last 12 games at home. Danubio won 1 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Deportivo Maldonado score 1.5 goals a game and let in 0.8. Danubio score 0.6 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Deportivo Maldonado games and 7 of Danubio games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Deportivo Maldonado won 1 and Danubio won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Deportivo Maldonado 3, Danubio 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Deportivo Maldonado draw no bet has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Maldonadorecent form+3%
Maldonado form D W W W LDanubio form D W L D DHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio: Deportivo Maldonado are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportivo Maldonado host Danubio in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sat 24 Oct, 22:30 at Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel. Our prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio is Deportivo Maldonado to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Deportivo Maldonado draw no bet at 1.17.

Deportivo Maldonado form

Deportivo Maldonado have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 12. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Danubio form

Danubio have 2 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 11 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Deportivo Maldonado won 1, Danubio won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Deportivo Maldonado 3, Danubio 1.

Our call

We expect Deportivo Maldonado to score about 1.7 goals and Danubio about 0.5. That points to Deportivo Maldonado to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Deportivo Maldonado draw no bet at 1.17. Our bold bet is Deportivo Maldonado to win and Over 2.5 at 3.41.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MaldonadoDanubio
Games played2020
Wins102
Draws68
Losses410
Goals scored3011
Goals conceded1525
Scored per game1.50.6
Conceded per game0.81.3
Home record6W 5D 1L1W 4D 4L
Away record4W 1D 3L1W 4D 6L
Clean sheets45%20%
Both teams scored40%40%
Over 2.5 goals35%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals64%1.56
Over 2.5 goals37%2.73
Over 3.5 goals17%5.78
Both teams to score31%3.18
Deportivo Maldonado or Draw91%1.10
Danubio or Draw33%2.99
Deportivo Maldonado to win and Over 2.531%3.18
Danubio to win and Over 2.53%31.14
Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet62%1.61
Danubio clean sheet19%5.38

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-018.8%
2-016.3%
0-012.1%
1-19.8%
3-09.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?

Our prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio is Deportivo Maldonado to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Deportivo Maldonado draw no bet at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 0-0. We expect Deportivo Maldonado to score 1.7 goals and Danubio 0.5.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?

Both teams to score has a 31% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Deportivo Maldonado last 20 games and 8 of Danubio last 20.

How are Deportivo Maldonado playing?

Deportivo Maldonado have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 12. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Danubio playing?

Danubio have 2 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 11 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Deportivo Maldonado and Danubio last met?

It ended Deportivo Maldonado 3, Danubio 1. In the last 2 meetings Deportivo Maldonado won 1 and Danubio won 0.

What is the best bet for Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?

Deportivo Maldonado draw no bet at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Maldonado against Danubio. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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