Predictions › Peru › Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Lima

Peruvian Liga 1Sun 25 Oct, 18:15 Peru time

Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Lima prediction

Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Deportivo MoqueguaHome

0.83 : 1.49

expected goals

Alianza LimaAway

20%Moquegua

28%Draw

52%Alianza Lima

Eagle safe pickAlianza Lima or Draw

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Lima is Alianza Lima to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Alianza Lima or Draw at 1.28.

Prediction: Alianza Lima to win
Chance: 52%
Most likely score: 0-1
Expected goals: Deportivo Moquegua 0.8, Alianza Lima 1.5
Best bet: Alianza Lima or Draw at 1.28
Both teams to score: 44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Alianza Lima or Draw

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Alianza Lima to win and Over 2.5

25% chanceFair price 3.931 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Deportivo Moquegua 20%, the draw 28% and Alianza Lima 52%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Deportivo Moquegua took 0 points from their last 5 games and Alianza Lima took 7 from 5. Alianza Lima come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Deportivo Moquegua won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Alianza Lima won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Deportivo Moquegua score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. Alianza Lima score 1.7 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Deportivo Moquegua games and 8 of Alianza Lima games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Deportivo Moquegua won 0 and Alianza Lima won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Alianza Lima 2, Deportivo Moquegua 1.
6
The safest bet
Alianza Lima or Draw has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Moqueguarecent form-6%
Alianza Limarecent form-1%

Moquegua form D L L L LAlianza Lima form D W L D LHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Lima: Alianza Lima are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportivo Moquegua host Alianza Lima in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sun 25 Oct, 18:15 at Estadio 25 de Noviembre. Our prediction for Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Lima is Alianza Lima to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Alianza Lima or Draw at 1.28.

Deportivo Moquegua form

Deportivo Moquegua have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Alianza Lima form

Alianza Lima have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Deportivo Moquegua won 0, Alianza Lima won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Alianza Lima 2, Deportivo Moquegua 1.

Our call

We expect Deportivo Moquegua to score about 0.8 goals and Alianza Lima about 1.5. That points to Alianza Lima to win, with 0-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Alianza Lima or Draw at 1.28. Our bold bet is Alianza Lima to win and Over 2.5 at 3.93.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Moquegua	Alianza Lima
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	11
Draws	6	6
Losses	10	3
Goals scored	18	34
Goals conceded	29	15
Scored per game	0.9	1.7
Conceded per game	1.4	0.8
Home record	2W 5D 3L	7W 1D 2L
Away record	2W 1D 7L	4W 5D 1L
Clean sheets	25%	35%
Both teams scored	45%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	68%	1.47
Over 2.5 goals	41%	2.45
Over 3.5 goals	20%	4.89
Both teams to score	44%	2.25
Deportivo Moquegua or Draw	48%	2.08
Alianza Lima or Draw	80%	1.25
Deportivo Moquegua to win and Over 2.5	9%	10.63
Alianza Lima to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.68
Deportivo Moquegua clean sheet	23%	4.43
Alianza Lima clean sheet	44%	2.30

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-113.9%

1-112.9%

0-210.9%

0-010.6%

1-29.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?

Our prediction for Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Lima is Alianza Lima to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Alianza Lima or Draw at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?

0-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-2. We expect Deportivo Moquegua to score 0.8 goals and Alianza Lima 1.5.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Deportivo Moquegua last 20 games and 11 of Alianza Lima last 20.

How are Deportivo Moquegua playing?

How are Alianza Lima playing?

What happened when Deportivo Moquegua and Alianza Lima last met?

It ended Alianza Lima 2, Deportivo Moquegua 1. In the last 1 meeting Deportivo Moquegua won 0 and Alianza Lima won 1.

What is the best bet for Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?

Alianza Lima or Draw at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Moquegua against Alianza Lima. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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