Predictions › Peru › Deportivo Moquegua vs Atlético Grau

Peruvian Liga 1Mon 16 Nov, 20:00 Peru time

Deportivo Moquegua vs Atlético Grau prediction

Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Deportivo MoqueguaHome

1.26 : 0.95

expected goals

Atlético GrauAway

43%Moquegua

30%Draw

27%Atlético Grau

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportivo Moquegua vs Atlético Grau is Deportivo Moquegua to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction: Deportivo Moquegua to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Deportivo Moquegua 1.3, Atlético Grau 0.9
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.181 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Deportivo Moquegua 43%, the draw 30% and Atlético Grau 27%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Deportivo Moquegua took 4 points from their last 5 games and Atlético Grau took 2 from 5. Deportivo Moquegua come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Deportivo Moquegua won 0 of their last 10 games at home. Atlético Grau won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Deportivo Moquegua score 0.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Atlético Grau score 1.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Deportivo Moquegua games and 9 of Atlético Grau games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Deportivo Moquegua won 0 and Atlético Grau won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlético Grau 1, Deportivo Moquegua 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Moqueguarecent form-3%
Atlético Graurecent form-4%

Moquegua form D L L W LAtlético Grau form L L D L DHome edge in this league 45% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportivo Moquegua vs Atlético Grau: Deportivo Moquegua shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportivo Moquegua host Atlético Grau in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Mon 16 Nov, 20:00 at Estadio 25 de Noviembre. Our prediction for Deportivo Moquegua vs Atlético Grau is Deportivo Moquegua to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Deportivo Moquegua form

Deportivo Moquegua have 2 wins, 7 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 11 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Atlético Grau form

Atlético Grau have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Deportivo Moquegua won 0, Atlético Grau won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Grau 1, Deportivo Moquegua 0.

Our call

We expect Deportivo Moquegua to score about 1.3 goals and Atlético Grau about 0.9. That points to Deportivo Moquegua to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.18.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Moquegua	Atlético Grau
Games played	20	20
Wins	2	7
Draws	7	3
Losses	11	10
Goals scored	11	20
Goals conceded	28	27
Scored per game	0.6	1.0
Conceded per game	1.4	1.4
Home record	0W 6D 4L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	2W 1D 7L	2W 1D 7L
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	30%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	65%	1.53
Over 2.5 goals	38%	2.64
Over 3.5 goals	18%	5.51
Both teams to score	45%	2.24
Deportivo Moquegua or Draw	73%	1.37
Atlético Grau or Draw	57%	1.74
Deportivo Moquegua to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.80
Atlético Grau to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.97
Deportivo Moquegua clean sheet	39%	2.58
Atlético Grau clean sheet	28%	3.51

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.9%

1-013.1%

0-011.8%

0-19.7%

2-08.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportivo Moquegua vs Atlético Grau?

Our prediction for Deportivo Moquegua vs Atlético Grau is Deportivo Moquegua to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Deportivo Moquegua vs Atlético Grau?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Deportivo Moquegua to score 1.3 goals and Atlético Grau 0.9.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Moquegua vs Atlético Grau?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of Deportivo Moquegua last 20 games and 9 of Atlético Grau last 20.

How are Deportivo Moquegua playing?

How are Atlético Grau playing?

What happened when Deportivo Moquegua and Atlético Grau last met?

It ended Atlético Grau 1, Deportivo Moquegua 0. In the last 1 meeting Deportivo Moquegua won 0 and Atlético Grau won 1.

What is the best bet for Deportivo Moquegua vs Atlético Grau?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Moquegua against Atlético Grau. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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