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Predictions › Peru › Deportivo Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal
Peruvian Liga 1Sun 13 Sept, 15:00 Peru time

Deportivo Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal prediction

Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Deportivo MoqueguaHome
1.18 : 1.58
expected goals
Sporting CristalAway
28%Moquegua
26%Draw
46%Sporting Cristal
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportivo Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal is Sporting Cristal to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction
Sporting Cristal to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Deportivo Moquegua 1.2, Sporting Cristal 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Deportivo Moquegua to win
26% chancePrice 3.95+4.3% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Deportivo Moquegua 28%, the draw 26% and Sporting Cristal 46%. The bookmakers agree and make Sporting Cristal the favourite at 1.80.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Deportivo Moquegua took 4 points from their last 5 games and Sporting Cristal took 7 from 5. Sporting Cristal come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Deportivo Moquegua won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Sporting Cristal won 0 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Deportivo Moquegua score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Sporting Cristal score 1.6 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Deportivo Moquegua games and 11 of Sporting Cristal games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Deportivo Moquegua won 1 and Sporting Cristal won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sporting Cristal 1, Deportivo Moquegua 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Moqueguarecent form-3%
Moquegua form L L W D LSporting Cristal form W L L W DHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportivo Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal: Sporting Cristal are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportivo Moquegua host Sporting Cristal in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sun 13 Sept, 15:00 at Estadio 25 de Noviembre. Our prediction for Deportivo Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal is Sporting Cristal to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Deportivo Moquegua form

Deportivo Moquegua have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Sporting Cristal form

Sporting Cristal have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Deportivo Moquegua won 1, Sporting Cristal won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sporting Cristal 1, Deportivo Moquegua 2.

Our call

We expect Deportivo Moquegua to score about 1.2 goals and Sporting Cristal about 1.6. That points to Sporting Cristal to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Deportivo Moquegua to win at 3.95.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MoqueguaSporting Cristal
Games played2020
Wins57
Draws63
Losses910
Goals scored2031
Goals conceded2732
Scored per game1.01.6
Conceded per game1.41.6
Home record3W 5D 2L7W 1D 1L
Away record2W 1D 7L0W 2D 9L
Clean sheets25%20%
Both teams scored50%60%
Over 2.5 goals55%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Deportivo Moquegua to win26%3.793.95+4.3%
A Draw25%4.033.55-11.8%
Sporting Cristal to win44%2.291.80-21.4%
Over 2.5 goals51%1.951.77-9.4%
Under 2.5 goals46%2.161.91-11.6%
Deportivo Moquegua +0.548%2.071.91-7.8%
Sporting Cristal -0.549%2.031.74-14.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.91
Over 3.5 goals30%3.33
Both teams to score56%1.79
Deportivo Moquegua or Draw54%1.85
Sporting Cristal or Draw72%1.39
Deportivo Moquegua to win and Over 2.517%6.00
Sporting Cristal to win and Over 2.529%3.48
Deportivo Moquegua clean sheet21%4.87
Sporting Cristal clean sheet31%3.26

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
1-29.3%
0-19.3%
0-27.9%
0-07.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportivo Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal?

Our prediction for Deportivo Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal is Sporting Cristal to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Deportivo Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Deportivo Moquegua to score 1.2 goals and Sporting Cristal 1.6.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Deportivo Moquegua last 20 games and 12 of Sporting Cristal last 20.

How are Deportivo Moquegua playing?

Deportivo Moquegua have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, L, newest first.

How are Sporting Cristal playing?

Sporting Cristal have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Deportivo Moquegua and Sporting Cristal last met?

It ended Sporting Cristal 1, Deportivo Moquegua 2. In the last 1 meeting Deportivo Moquegua won 1 and Sporting Cristal won 0.

What is the best bet for Deportivo Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Moquegua against Sporting Cristal. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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