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Predictions › Colombia › Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza FC
Colombian Primera ATue 20 Oct, 01:05 Colombia time

Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza FC prediction

Departamental Libertad

Deportivo PastoHome
1.25 : 0.86
expected goals
Alianza FCAway
45%Pasto
31%Draw
25%Alianza FC
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza FC is Deportivo Pasto to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Deportivo Pasto to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Deportivo Pasto 1.3, Alianza FC 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
42%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
14% chanceFair price 6.961 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Deportivo Pasto 45%, the draw 31% and Alianza FC 25%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Deportivo Pasto took 8 points from their last 5 games and Alianza FC took 7 from 5. Deportivo Pasto come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Deportivo Pasto won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Alianza FC won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Deportivo Pasto score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. Alianza FC score 1.0 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Deportivo Pasto games and 12 of Alianza FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Deportivo Pasto won 0 and Alianza FC won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Alianza FC 0, Deportivo Pasto 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Alianza FCrest between games-5%
Pasto form D L W W LAlianza FC form D L W L WHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza FC: Deportivo Pasto shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportivo Pasto host Alianza FC in the Colombian Primera A on Tue 20 Oct, 01:05 at Departamental Libertad. Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza FC is Deportivo Pasto to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Deportivo Pasto form

Deportivo Pasto have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Alianza FC form

Alianza FC have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Deportivo Pasto won 0, Alianza FC won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Alianza FC 0, Deportivo Pasto 0.

Our call

We expect Deportivo Pasto to score about 1.3 goals and Alianza FC about 0.9. That points to Deportivo Pasto to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.96.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PastoAlianza FC
Games played2020
Wins44
Draws46
Losses1210
Goals scored1820
Goals conceded3134
Scored per game0.91.0
Conceded per game1.61.7
Home record2W 1D 7L1W 5D 5L
Away record2W 3D 5L3W 1D 5L
Clean sheets25%20%
Both teams scored45%60%
Over 2.5 goals45%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals63%1.58
Over 2.5 goals35%2.83
Over 3.5 goals16%6.11
Both teams to score42%2.38
Deportivo Pasto or Draw75%1.33
Alianza FC or Draw55%1.81
Deportivo Pasto to win and Over 2.521%4.81
Alianza FC to win and Over 2.511%9.42
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet42%2.36
Alianza FC clean sheet29%3.50

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.4%
1-113.8%
0-012.9%
0-19.6%
2-09.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza FC?

Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza FC is Deportivo Pasto to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza FC?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Deportivo Pasto to score 1.3 goals and Alianza FC 0.9.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza FC?

Both teams to score has a 42% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Deportivo Pasto last 20 games and 12 of Alianza FC last 20.

How are Deportivo Pasto playing?

Deportivo Pasto have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Alianza FC playing?

Alianza FC have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Deportivo Pasto and Alianza FC last met?

It ended Alianza FC 0, Deportivo Pasto 0. In the last 2 meetings Deportivo Pasto won 0 and Alianza FC won 0.

What is the best bet for Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza FC?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Pasto against Alianza FC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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