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Predictions › Colombia › Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Junior
Colombian Primera ASun 8 Nov, 20:30 Colombia time

Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Junior prediction

Departamental Libertad

Deportivo PastoHome
0.98 : 1.18
expected goals
Atlético JuniorAway
30%Pasto
31%Draw
39%Atl. Junior
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Junior is Atlético Junior to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction
Atlético Junior to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Deportivo Pasto 1.0, Atlético Junior 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score
44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.071 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Deportivo Pasto 30%, the draw 31% and Atlético Junior 39%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Deportivo Pasto took 4 points from their last 5 games and Atlético Junior took 7 from 5. Atlético Junior come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Deportivo Pasto won 1 of their last 9 games at home. Atlético Junior won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Deportivo Pasto score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. Atlético Junior score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Deportivo Pasto games and 9 of Atlético Junior games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Deportivo Pasto won 0 and Atlético Junior won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlético Junior 4, Deportivo Pasto 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Pastorecent form-4%
  • Atl. Juniorrecent form+1%
  • Atl. Juniorrest between games-5%
Pasto form D L L D LAtl. Junior form D W D D DHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Junior: Atlético Junior shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportivo Pasto host Atlético Junior in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 8 Nov, 20:30 at Departamental Libertad. Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Junior is Atlético Junior to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

Deportivo Pasto form

Deportivo Pasto have 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Atlético Junior form

Atlético Junior have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Deportivo Pasto won 0, Atlético Junior won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Junior 4, Deportivo Pasto 3.

Our call

We expect Deportivo Pasto to score about 1.0 goals and Atlético Junior about 1.2. That points to Atlético Junior to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.07.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PastoAtl. Junior
Games played2020
Wins44
Draws38
Losses138
Goals scored1725
Goals conceded3329
Scored per game0.81.3
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record1W 1D 7L3W 6D 1L
Away record3W 2D 6L1W 2D 7L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored40%60%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals64%1.55
Over 2.5 goals37%2.73
Over 3.5 goals17%5.79
Both teams to score44%2.27
Deportivo Pasto or Draw61%1.65
Atlético Junior or Draw70%1.42
Deportivo Pasto to win and Over 2.514%7.38
Atlético Junior to win and Over 2.519%5.34
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet31%3.24
Atlético Junior clean sheet37%2.67

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.1%
0-112.8%
0-012.3%
1-010.5%
0-28.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Junior?

Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Junior is Atlético Junior to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Junior?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Deportivo Pasto to score 1.0 goals and Atlético Junior 1.2.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Junior?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Deportivo Pasto last 20 games and 12 of Atlético Junior last 20.

How are Deportivo Pasto playing?

Deportivo Pasto have 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Atlético Junior playing?

Atlético Junior have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Deportivo Pasto and Atlético Junior last met?

It ended Atlético Junior 4, Deportivo Pasto 3. In the last 2 meetings Deportivo Pasto won 0 and Atlético Junior won 2.

What is the best bet for Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Junior?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Pasto against Atl. Junior. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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