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Predictions › Colombia › Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera ASun 4 Oct, 19:00 Colombia time

Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza CEIF prediction

Departamental Libertad

Deportivo PastoHome
1.36 : 0.99
expected goals
Fortaleza CEIFAway
44%Pasto
29%Draw
27%Fortaleza
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza CEIF is Deportivo Pasto to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Deportivo Pasto to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Deportivo Pasto 1.4, Fortaleza CEIF 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.341 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Deportivo Pasto 44%, the draw 29% and Fortaleza CEIF 27%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Deportivo Pasto took 7 points from their last 5 games and Fortaleza CEIF took 3 from 5. Deportivo Pasto come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Deportivo Pasto won 2 of their last 9 games at home. Fortaleza CEIF won 0 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Deportivo Pasto score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.6. Fortaleza CEIF score 1.1 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Deportivo Pasto games and 12 of Fortaleza CEIF games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Deportivo Pasto won 1 and Fortaleza CEIF won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Fortaleza CEIF 1, Deportivo Pasto 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Fortalezarecent form-3%
  • Pastorest between games-2%
  • Fortalezarest between games-5%
Pasto form L W W L DFortaleza form D L D D LHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza CEIF: Deportivo Pasto shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportivo Pasto host Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 4 Oct, 19:00 at Departamental Libertad. Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza CEIF is Deportivo Pasto to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Deportivo Pasto form

Deportivo Pasto have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Fortaleza CEIF form

Fortaleza CEIF have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Deportivo Pasto won 1, Fortaleza CEIF won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Fortaleza CEIF 1, Deportivo Pasto 2.

Our call

We expect Deportivo Pasto to score about 1.4 goals and Fortaleza CEIF about 1.0. That points to Deportivo Pasto to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.34.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PastoFortaleza
Games played2020
Wins53
Draws38
Losses129
Goals scored2023
Goals conceded3231
Scored per game1.01.1
Conceded per game1.61.6
Home record2W 0D 7L3W 3D 5L
Away record3W 3D 5L0W 5D 4L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored50%70%
Over 2.5 goals50%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals69%1.45
Over 2.5 goals42%2.40
Over 3.5 goals21%4.74
Both teams to score48%2.10
Deportivo Pasto or Draw73%1.36
Fortaleza CEIF or Draw56%1.80
Deportivo Pasto to win and Over 2.523%4.27
Fortaleza CEIF to win and Over 2.513%7.53
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet37%2.70
Fortaleza CEIF clean sheet26%3.88

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%
1-012.2%
0-010.3%
2-08.8%
2-18.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza CEIF is Deportivo Pasto to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza CEIF?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Deportivo Pasto to score 1.4 goals and Fortaleza CEIF 1.0.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Deportivo Pasto last 20 games and 14 of Fortaleza CEIF last 20.

How are Deportivo Pasto playing?

Deportivo Pasto have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

How are Fortaleza CEIF playing?

Fortaleza CEIF have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Deportivo Pasto and Fortaleza CEIF last met?

It ended Fortaleza CEIF 1, Deportivo Pasto 2. In the last 2 meetings Deportivo Pasto won 1 and Fortaleza CEIF won 1.

What is the best bet for Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Pasto against Fortaleza. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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