Predictions › Colombia › Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Córdoba

Colombian Primera AThu 5 Nov, 00:00 Colombia time

Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Córdoba prediction

Departamental Libertad

Deportivo PastoHome

1.42 : 0.89

expected goals

Jaguares de CórdobaAway

49%Pasto

29%Draw

23%Jaguares

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Córdoba is Deportivo Pasto to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: Deportivo Pasto to win
Chance: 49%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Deportivo Pasto 1.4, Jaguares de Córdoba 0.9
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0

13% chanceFair price 7.501 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Deportivo Pasto 49%, the draw 29% and Jaguares de Córdoba 23%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Deportivo Pasto took 4 points from their last 5 games and Jaguares de Córdoba took 3 from 5. Deportivo Pasto come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Deportivo Pasto won 1 of their last 9 games at home. Jaguares de Córdoba won 0 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Deportivo Pasto score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. Jaguares de Córdoba score 1.3 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Deportivo Pasto games and 13 of Jaguares de Córdoba games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Deportivo Pasto won 1 and Jaguares de Córdoba won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Jaguares de Córdoba 2, Deportivo Pasto 3.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Pastorecent form-4%
Jaguaresrecent form-3%
Pastorest between games-5%

Pasto form D L L D LJaguares form D L W L LHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Córdoba: Deportivo Pasto are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportivo Pasto host Jaguares de Córdoba in the Colombian Primera A on Thu 5 Nov, 00:00 at Departamental Libertad. Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Córdoba is Deportivo Pasto to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Deportivo Pasto form

Deportivo Pasto have 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Jaguares de Córdoba form

Jaguares de Córdoba have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Deportivo Pasto won 1, Jaguares de Córdoba won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Jaguares de Córdoba 2, Deportivo Pasto 3.

Our call

We expect Deportivo Pasto to score about 1.4 goals and Jaguares de Córdoba about 0.9. That points to Deportivo Pasto to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 7.50.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Pasto	Jaguares
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	4
Draws	3	5
Losses	13	11
Goals scored	17	25
Goals conceded	33	38
Scored per game	0.8	1.3
Conceded per game	1.6	1.9
Home record	1W 1D 7L	4W 3D 3L
Away record	3W 2D 6L	0W 2D 8L
Clean sheets	20%	15%
Both teams scored	40%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	68%	1.47
Over 2.5 goals	41%	2.46
Over 3.5 goals	20%	4.93
Both teams to score	45%	2.20
Deportivo Pasto or Draw	77%	1.30
Jaguares de Córdoba or Draw	51%	1.95
Deportivo Pasto to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.96
Jaguares de Córdoba to win and Over 2.5	11%	9.23
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet	41%	2.44
Jaguares de Córdoba clean sheet	24%	4.14

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.3%

1-113.3%

0-010.7%

2-010.0%

2-18.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Córdoba?

Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Córdoba is Deportivo Pasto to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Córdoba?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Deportivo Pasto to score 1.4 goals and Jaguares de Córdoba 0.9.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Córdoba?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Deportivo Pasto last 20 games and 13 of Jaguares de Córdoba last 20.

How are Deportivo Pasto playing?

How are Jaguares de Córdoba playing?

What happened when Deportivo Pasto and Jaguares de Córdoba last met?

It ended Jaguares de Córdoba 2, Deportivo Pasto 3. In the last 1 meeting Deportivo Pasto won 1 and Jaguares de Córdoba won 0.

What is the best bet for Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Córdoba?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Pasto against Jaguares. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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