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Predictions › Colombia › Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas
Colombian Primera ASun 20 Sept, 01:15 Colombia time

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas prediction

Departamental Libertad

Deportivo PastoHome
1.02 : 1.37
expected goals
Once CaldasAway
27%Pasto
29%Draw
44%Once Caldas
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas is Once Caldas to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Once Caldas to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Deportivo Pasto 1.0, Once Caldas 1.4
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.381 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Deportivo Pasto 27%, the draw 29% and Once Caldas 44%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Deportivo Pasto took 2 points from their last 5 games and Once Caldas took 5 from 5. Once Caldas come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Deportivo Pasto won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Once Caldas won 2 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Deportivo Pasto score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.6. Once Caldas score 1.6 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Deportivo Pasto games and 9 of Once Caldas games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Deportivo Pasto won 0 and Once Caldas won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Once Caldas 4, Deportivo Pasto 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Pastorecent form-4%
  • Once Caldasrecent form+1%
Pasto form L D L D LOnce Caldas form W L W D DHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas: Once Caldas shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportivo Pasto host Once Caldas in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 20 Sept, 01:15 at Departamental Libertad. Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas is Once Caldas to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Deportivo Pasto form

Deportivo Pasto have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Once Caldas form

Once Caldas have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 8 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Deportivo Pasto won 0, Once Caldas won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Once Caldas 4, Deportivo Pasto 2.

Our call

We expect Deportivo Pasto to score about 1.0 goals and Once Caldas about 1.4. That points to Once Caldas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.38.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PastoOnce Caldas
Games played2020
Wins57
Draws39
Losses124
Goals scored2431
Goals conceded3324
Scored per game1.21.6
Conceded per game1.61.2
Home record3W 0D 7L5W 1D 3L
Away record2W 3D 5L2W 8D 1L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored55%65%
Over 2.5 goals50%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.43
Over 2.5 goals43%2.34
Over 3.5 goals22%4.56
Both teams to score48%2.06
Deportivo Pasto or Draw56%1.79
Once Caldas or Draw73%1.37
Deportivo Pasto to win and Over 2.514%7.27
Once Caldas to win and Over 2.524%4.20
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet25%3.95
Once Caldas clean sheet36%2.76

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%
0-111.8%
0-09.9%
1-28.8%
0-28.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas?

Our prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas is Once Caldas to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Deportivo Pasto to score 1.0 goals and Once Caldas 1.4.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Deportivo Pasto last 20 games and 13 of Once Caldas last 20.

How are Deportivo Pasto playing?

Deportivo Pasto have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Once Caldas playing?

Once Caldas have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 8 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas last met?

It ended Once Caldas 4, Deportivo Pasto 2. In the last 2 meetings Deportivo Pasto won 0 and Once Caldas won 2.

What is the best bet for Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Pasto against Once Caldas. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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