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Predictions › Colombia › Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera ATue 29 Sept, 20:30 Colombia time

Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe prediction

Estadio Santiago de Las Atalayas

Deportivo PereiraHome
0.90 : 1.61
expected goals
Independiente Santa FeAway
20%Pereira
26%Draw
53%Santa Fe
Eagle safe pickIndependiente Santa Fe or Draw
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.29.

Prediction
Independiente Santa Fe to win
Chance
53%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Deportivo Pereira 0.9, Independiente Santa Fe 1.6
Best bet
Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.29
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Independiente Santa Fe or Draw
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Independiente Santa Fe to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.431 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Deportivo Pereira 20%, the draw 26% and Independiente Santa Fe 53%. The bookmakers agree and make Independiente Santa Fe the favourite at 1.83.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Deportivo Pereira took 3 points from their last 5 games and Independiente Santa Fe took 10 from 5. Independiente Santa Fe come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Deportivo Pereira won 1 of their last 9 games at home. Independiente Santa Fe won 3 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Deportivo Pereira score 0.7 goals a game and let in 1.4. Independiente Santa Fe score 1.6 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Deportivo Pereira games and 10 of Independiente Santa Fe games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Deportivo Pereira won 0 and Independiente Santa Fe won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Independiente Santa Fe 2, Deportivo Pereira 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Independiente Santa Fe or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Pereirarecent form-3%
  • Pereirarest between games-5%
Pereira form D D L L DSanta Fe form D L W L WHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe: Independiente Santa Fe are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Deportivo Pereira host Independiente Santa Fe in the Colombian Primera A on Tue 29 Sept, 20:30 at Estadio Santiago de Las Atalayas. Our prediction for Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.29.

Deportivo Pereira form

Deportivo Pereira have 2 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 13 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Independiente Santa Fe form

Independiente Santa Fe have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Deportivo Pereira won 0, Independiente Santa Fe won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente Santa Fe 2, Deportivo Pereira 2.

Our call

We expect Deportivo Pereira to score about 0.9 goals and Independiente Santa Fe about 1.6. That points to Independiente Santa Fe to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.29. Our bold bet is Independiente Santa Fe to win and Over 2.5 at 3.43.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PereiraSanta Fe
Games played2020
Wins29
Draws88
Losses103
Goals scored1332
Goals conceded2719
Scored per game0.71.6
Conceded per game1.40.9
Home record1W 4D 4L6W 5D 1L
Away record1W 4D 6L3W 3D 2L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored35%65%
Over 2.5 goals40%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Deportivo Pereira to win20%5.004.10-18.0%
A Draw25%3.943.25-17.4%
Independiente Santa Fe to win50%1.991.83-7.9%
Over 2.5 goals43%2.342.00-14.6%
Under 2.5 goals51%1.961.69-13.8%
Deportivo Pereira +0.545%2.211.87-15.5%
Independiente Santa Fe -0.549%2.061.80-12.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.38
Over 2.5 goals46%2.18
Over 3.5 goals25%4.08
Both teams to score48%2.07
Deportivo Pereira or Draw47%2.15
Independiente Santa Fe or Draw80%1.25
Deportivo Pereira to win and Over 2.510%9.59
Independiente Santa Fe to win and Over 2.531%3.28
Deportivo Pereira clean sheet20%5.01
Independiente Santa Fe clean sheet41%2.46

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
0-112.3%
0-210.5%
1-29.5%
0-08.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe?

Our prediction for Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-2. We expect Deportivo Pereira to score 0.9 goals and Independiente Santa Fe 1.6.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Deportivo Pereira last 20 games and 13 of Independiente Santa Fe last 20.

How are Deportivo Pereira playing?

Deportivo Pereira have 2 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 13 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Independiente Santa Fe playing?

Independiente Santa Fe have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Deportivo Pereira and Independiente Santa Fe last met?

It ended Independiente Santa Fe 2, Deportivo Pereira 2. In the last 1 meeting Deportivo Pereira won 0 and Independiente Santa Fe won 0.

What is the best bet for Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe?

Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Pereira against Santa Fe. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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