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Predictions › United Kingdom › Derby County vs Norwich City
ChampionshipTue 3 Nov, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Derby County vs Norwich City prediction

Pride Park

Derby CountyHome
1.14 : 1.44
expected goals
Norwich CityAway
29%Derby
28%Draw
43%Norwich City
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Derby County vs Norwich City is Norwich City to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
Norwich City to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Derby County 1.1, Norwich City 1.4
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1/32 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Derby County 29%, the draw 28% and Norwich City 43%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Derby County took 3 points from their last 5 games and Norwich City took 3 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Derby County won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Norwich City won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Derby County score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.7. Norwich City score 1.7 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Derby County games and 15 of Norwich City games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Derby County won 1 and Norwich City won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Norwich City 2, Derby County 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Derbyrecent form-3%
  • Norwich Cityrecent form-6%
  • Derbyrest between games-5%
  • Norwich Cityrest between games-5%
Derby form D L L D DNorwich City form D L L L LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Derby County vs Norwich City: Norwich City shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Derby County host Norwich City in the Championship on Tue 3 Nov, 19:45 at Pride Park. Our prediction for Derby County vs Norwich City is Norwich City to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Derby County form

Derby County have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, D, newest first.

Norwich City form

Norwich City have 8 wins, 1 draw and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Derby County won 1, Norwich City won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Norwich City 2, Derby County 1.

Our call

We expect Derby County to score about 1.1 goals and Norwich City about 1.4. That points to Norwich City to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DerbyNorwich City
Games played2020
Wins48
Draws41
Losses1211
Goals scored2234
Goals conceded3437
Scored per game1.11.7
Conceded per game1.71.9
Home record2W 2D 6L4W 1D 5L
Away record2W 2D 6L4W 0D 6L
Clean sheets15%0%
Both teams scored65%70%
Over 2.5 goals60%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%4/11
Over 2.5 goals48%11/10
Over 3.5 goals26%11/4
Both teams to score53%10/11
Derby County or Draw57%8/11
Norwich City or Draw71%2/5
Derby County to win and Over 2.516%5/1
Norwich City to win and Over 2.525%3/1
Derby County clean sheet24%10/3
Norwich City clean sheet32%85/40

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%
0-110.1%
1-29.0%
0-08.3%
1-07.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Derby County vs Norwich City?

Our prediction for Derby County vs Norwich City is Norwich City to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Derby County vs Norwich City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Derby County to score 1.1 goals and Norwich City 1.4.

Will both teams score in Derby County vs Norwich City?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Derby County last 20 games and 14 of Norwich City last 20.

How are Derby County playing?

Derby County have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, D, newest first.

How are Norwich City playing?

Norwich City have 8 wins, 1 draw and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Derby County and Norwich City last met?

It ended Norwich City 2, Derby County 1. In the last 2 meetings Derby County won 1 and Norwich City won 1.

What is the best bet for Derby County vs Norwich City?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/3, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Derby against Norwich City. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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