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Predictions › United Kingdom › Derby County vs Stoke City
ChampionshipSat 17 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Derby County vs Stoke City prediction

Pride Park

Derby CountyHome
1.25 : 0.99
expected goals
Stoke CityAway
42%Derby
30%Draw
28%Stoke
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
2/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Derby County vs Stoke City is Derby County to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7.

Prediction
Derby County to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Derby County 1.3, Stoke City 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 2/7
Both teams to score
46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 2/72 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 6/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Derby County 42%, the draw 30% and Stoke City 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Derby County took 4 points from their last 5 games and Stoke City took 13 from 5. Stoke City come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Derby County won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Stoke City won 1 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Derby County score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Stoke City score 1.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Derby County games and 11 of Stoke City games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Derby County won 1 and Stoke City won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Derby County 2, Stoke City 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Derbyrecent form-3%
  • Stokerecent form+6%
Derby form D L L L WStoke form W W D W WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Derby County vs Stoke City: Derby County shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Derby County host Stoke City in the Championship on Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 at Pride Park. Our prediction for Derby County vs Stoke City is Derby County to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7.

Derby County form

Derby County have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Stoke City form

Stoke City have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Derby County won 1, Stoke City won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Derby County 2, Stoke City 0.

Our call

We expect Derby County to score about 1.3 goals and Stoke City about 1.0. That points to Derby County to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 6/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DerbyStoke
Games played2020
Wins77
Draws24
Losses119
Goals scored2328
Goals conceded2933
Scored per game1.11.4
Conceded per game1.41.6
Home record4W 1D 5L6W 3D 3L
Away record3W 1D 6L1W 1D 6L
Clean sheets25%20%
Both teams scored55%65%
Over 2.5 goals60%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%1/2
Over 2.5 goals39%8/5
Over 3.5 goals19%9/2
Both teams to score46%6/5
Derby County or Draw72%2/5
Stoke City or Draw58%8/11
Derby County to win and Over 2.521%4/1
Stoke City to win and Over 2.514%13/2
Derby County clean sheet37%7/4
Stoke City clean sheet29%5/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%
1-012.5%
0-011.4%
0-19.7%
2-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Derby County vs Stoke City?

Our prediction for Derby County vs Stoke City is Derby County to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7.

What is the score prediction for Derby County vs Stoke City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Derby County to score 1.3 goals and Stoke City 1.0.

Will both teams score in Derby County vs Stoke City?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Derby County last 20 games and 13 of Stoke City last 20.

How are Derby County playing?

Derby County have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Stoke City playing?

Stoke City have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Derby County and Stoke City last met?

It ended Derby County 2, Stoke City 0. In the last 1 meeting Derby County won 1 and Stoke City won 0.

What is the best bet for Derby County vs Stoke City?

Under 3.5 goals at 2/7, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Derby against Stoke. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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