Predictions › United Kingdom › Derby County vs Wrexham

ChampionshipSat 10 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Derby County vs Wrexham prediction

Pride Park

Derby CountyHome

1.25 : 1.27

expected goals

WrexhamAway

35%Derby

28%Draw

36%Wrexham

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Derby County vs Wrexham is Wrexham to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction: Wrexham to win
Chance: 36%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Derby County 1.3, Wrexham 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1/32 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Derby County 35%, the draw 28% and Wrexham 36%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Derby County the favourite at 8/5, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Derby County took 4 points from their last 5 games and Wrexham took 8 from 5. Wrexham come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Derby County won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Wrexham won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Derby County score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Wrexham score 1.2 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Derby County games and 11 of Wrexham games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Derby County won 0 and Wrexham won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Derby County 1, Wrexham 2.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Derbyrecent form-3%
Wrexhamrecent form+1%

Derby form D L L L WWrexham form W L D D WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Derby County vs Wrexham: Wrexham shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Derby County host Wrexham in the Championship on Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 at Pride Park. Our prediction for Derby County vs Wrexham is Wrexham to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Derby County form

Derby County have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Wrexham form

Wrexham have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Derby County won 0, Wrexham won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Derby County 1, Wrexham 2.

Our call

We expect Derby County to score about 1.3 goals and Wrexham about 1.3. That points to Wrexham to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Derby	Wrexham
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	6
Draws	2	6
Losses	11	8
Goals scored	23	24
Goals conceded	29	33
Scored per game	1.1	1.2
Conceded per game	1.4	1.6
Home record	4W 1D 5L	3W 3D 3L
Away record	3W 1D 6L	3W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Both teams scored	55%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Derby County to win	33%	2/1	8/5	-13.3%
A Draw	28%	13/5	9/4	-9.1%
Wrexham to win	34%	15/8	8/5	-10.7%
Over 2.5 goals	44%	5/4	10/11	-14.5%
Under 2.5 goals	50%	Evens	8/11	-13.1%
Derby County +0.5	60%	4/6	4/9	-11.9%
Wrexham -0.5	35%	9/5	11/8	-16.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	4/11
Over 2.5 goals	46%	6/5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	3/1
Both teams to score	52%	10/11
Derby County or Draw	64%	4/7
Wrexham or Draw	65%	8/15
Derby County to win and Over 2.5	20%	4/1
Wrexham to win and Over 2.5	20%	4/1
Derby County clean sheet	28%	13/5
Wrexham clean sheet	29%	5/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%

0-19.5%

1-09.3%

0-08.8%

1-28.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Championship

West Ham Dominate Wrexham in Record Breaking London Stadium Match

Wrexham suffered their heaviest defeat under celebrity owners Ryan Reynolds and Rob Mac in a six to zero loss against West Ham.

11 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Derby County vs Wrexham?

Our prediction for Derby County vs Wrexham is Wrexham to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Derby County vs Wrexham?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect Derby County to score 1.3 goals and Wrexham 1.3.

Will both teams score in Derby County vs Wrexham?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Derby County last 20 games and 12 of Wrexham last 20.

How are Derby County playing?

How are Wrexham playing?

What happened when Derby County and Wrexham last met?

It ended Derby County 1, Wrexham 2. In the last 2 meetings Derby County won 0 and Wrexham won 1.

What is the best bet for Derby County vs Wrexham?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/3, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Derby against Wrexham. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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