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Predictions › United States › Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning
NHLSat 14 Nov, 19:00 United States time

Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction

Benchmark International Arena

Detroit Red WingsAway
2.5 : 3.1
projected goals
Tampa Bay LightningHome
43%Red Wings
57%Lightning
Eagle safe pickOver 4 goals
-398

Quick answer

Our prediction for Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 57% chance, but it is a close call. We project Detroit Red Wings 2.5 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1. Our best bet is Over 4 goals at -398.

Prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Chance
57%
Projected score
Detroit Red Wings 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Projected total
5.7 goals
Best bet
Over 4 goals at -398

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 4 goals
80% chanceFair price -3982 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Red Wings to win
38% chanceFair price +1661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Tampa Bay Lightning 57% and Detroit Red Wings 43%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Tampa Bay Lightning won 2 of their last 5 and Detroit Red Wings won 3 of their last 5. Detroit Red Wings come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Tampa Bay Lightning won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Detroit Red Wings won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Tampa Bay Lightning score 3.2 goals a game and let in 2.9. Detroit Red Wings score 3.0 and let in 3.0. Their recent games average 6.1 and 6.0 goals in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Tampa Bay Lightning won 4 and Detroit Red Wings won 1. The last one ended Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Detroit Red Wings 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 4 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lightningrest between games-5%
  • Red Wingsrest between games-5%
  • Red Wingsteam news-2%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Tampa Bay Lightning host Detroit Red Wings in the NHL on Sat 14 Nov, 19:00 at Benchmark International Arena. Our prediction for Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 57% chance, but it is a close call. We project Detroit Red Wings 2.5 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1. Our best bet is Over 4 goals at -398.

Tampa Bay Lightning form

Tampa Bay Lightning have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 64 goals scored and 58 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Detroit Red Wings form

Detroit Red Wings have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 60 goals scored and 61 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Tampa Bay Lightning won 4, Detroit Red Wings won 1. Last time out it finished Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Detroit Red Wings 2.

Our call

We expect Detroit Red Wings to score about 2.5 goals and Tampa Bay Lightning about 3.1. That points to Tampa Bay Lightning to win. Our safest bet is Over 4 goals at -398. Our bold bet is Red Wings to win at +166.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LightningRed Wings
Games played2020
Wins129
Losses811
Goals scored6460
Goals conceded5861
Scored per game3.23.0
Conceded per game2.93.0
Home record8W 2L5W 6L
Away record4W 6L4W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Lightning spreadCoversFair
Lightning -1.535%+183
Lightning -0.552%-107
Lightning +0.568%-209
Total goalsOverUnder
4.570%30%
5.553%47%
6.536%64%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Lightning +3.5 wins if Lightning win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NHL

Kucherov Sets Up Two Goals in Lightning Victory After Trade Request

Nikita Kucherov recorded two assists as the Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Detroit Red Wings 4-2 on Tuesday.

19 hours ago
NHL

Nikita Kucherov Requests Trade Away From Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning star forward Nikita Kucherov has requested a trade after contract negotiations stalled on Friday.

31 Oct 2026
NHL

Detroit Red Wings Suspend Dylan Larkin After Trade Standoff

Detroit has suspended Dylan Larkin without pay after the star forward informed the team he will no longer play.

29 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Our prediction for Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 57% chance, but it is a close call. We project Detroit Red Wings 2.5 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1. Our best bet is Over 4 goals at -398.

What is the projected score for Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

We project Detroit Red Wings 2.5 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1, about 5.7 goals in total.

How are Tampa Bay Lightning playing?

Tampa Bay Lightning have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 64 goals scored and 58 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Detroit Red Wings playing?

Detroit Red Wings have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 60 goals scored and 61 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit Red Wings last met?

It ended Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Detroit Red Wings 2. In the last 5 meetings Tampa Bay Lightning won 4 and Detroit Red Wings won 1.

What is the best bet for Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Over 4 goals at -398, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lightning against Red Wings. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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