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Predictions › France › Dijon FCO vs Metz
Ligue 2Mon 12 Oct, 18:45 France time

Dijon FCO vs Metz prediction

Stade Gaston-Gérard

Dijon FCOHome
1.36 : 1.42
expected goals
MetzAway
35%Dijon FCO
27%Draw
38%Metz
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Dijon FCO vs Metz is Metz to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Metz to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Dijon FCO 1.4, Metz 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.881 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Dijon FCO 35%, the draw 27% and Metz 38%. The bookmakers agree and make Metz the favourite at 2.35.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Dijon FCO took 8 points from their last 5 games and Metz took 6 from 5. Dijon FCO come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Dijon FCO won 1 of their last 3 games at home. Metz won 0 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Dijon FCO score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Metz score 1.1 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Dijon FCO games and 12 of Metz games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Dijon FCOrecent form+1%
Dijon FCO form W W D L DMetz form D L W D DHome edge in this league 10% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Dijon FCO vs Metz: Metz shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Dijon FCO host Metz in the Ligue 2 on Mon 12 Oct, 18:45 at Stade Gaston-Gérard. Our prediction for Dijon FCO vs Metz is Metz to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Dijon FCO form

Dijon FCO have 2 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 7 games, with 10 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Metz form

Metz have 2 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Dijon FCO to score about 1.4 goals and Metz about 1.4. That points to Metz to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.88.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Dijon FCOMetz
Games played720
Wins22
Draws38
Losses210
Goals scored1021
Goals conceded1037
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.41.9
Home record1W 0D 2L2W 3D 6L
Away record1W 3D 0L0W 5D 4L
Clean sheets0%20%
Both teams scored86%55%
Over 2.5 goals43%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Dijon FCO to win34%2.972.70-9.0%
A Draw26%3.813.45-9.4%
Metz to win36%2.782.35-15.5%
Over 2.5 goals51%1.971.67-15.3%
Under 2.5 goals43%2.312.00-13.4%
Dijon FCO +0.557%1.741.53-12.4%
Metz -0.537%2.682.25-15.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.90
Over 3.5 goals30%3.29
Both teams to score57%1.75
Dijon FCO or Draw62%1.61
Metz or Draw65%1.54
Dijon FCO to win and Over 2.522%4.59
Metz to win and Over 2.524%4.23
Dijon FCO clean sheet24%4.14
Metz clean sheet26%3.90

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%
1-28.5%
2-18.1%
0-18.1%
1-07.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Dijon FCO vs Metz?

Our prediction for Dijon FCO vs Metz is Metz to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Dijon FCO vs Metz?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Dijon FCO to score 1.4 goals and Metz 1.4.

Will both teams score in Dijon FCO vs Metz?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of Dijon FCO last 7 games and 11 of Metz last 20.

How are Dijon FCO playing?

Dijon FCO have 2 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 7 games, with 10 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Metz playing?

Metz have 2 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Dijon FCO vs Metz?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Dijon FCO against Metz. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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