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Predictions › Europa League › Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen
Europa LeagueThu 22 Oct, 16:45 UTC

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen prediction

Maksimir Stadium

Dinamo ZagrebHome
1.78 : 1.88
expected goals
NEC NijmegenAway
37%Dinamo Zagreb
23%Draw
40%NEC
Eagle safe pickBoth teams to score
1.36

Quick answer

Our prediction for Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen is NEC Nijmegen to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.36.

Prediction
NEC Nijmegen to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Dinamo Zagreb 1.8, NEC Nijmegen 1.9
Best bet
Both teams to score at 1.36
Both teams to score
71%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Both teams to score
73% chanceFair price 1.361 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 3.381 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Dinamo Zagreb 37%, the draw 23% and NEC Nijmegen 40%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Dinamo Zagreb took 5 points from their last 5 games and NEC Nijmegen took 3 from 5. Dinamo Zagreb come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of their last 5 games at home. NEC Nijmegen won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Dinamo Zagreb score 1.5 goals a game and let in 2.0. NEC Nijmegen score 1.6 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Dinamo Zagreb games and 13 of NEC Nijmegen games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Both teams to score has a 73% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Dinamo Zagrebrecent form+1%
  • NECrecent form-3%
  • Dinamo Zagrebrest between games-3%
  • NECrest between games-2%
Dinamo Zagreb form D L D W WNEC form D D L L DHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen: NEC Nijmegen shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Dinamo Zagreb host NEC Nijmegen in the Europa League on Thu 22 Oct, 16:45 at Maksimir Stadium. Our prediction for Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen is NEC Nijmegen to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.36.

Dinamo Zagreb form

Dinamo Zagreb have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 11 games, with 16 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, W, newest first.

NEC Nijmegen form

NEC Nijmegen have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Dinamo Zagreb to score about 1.8 goals and NEC Nijmegen about 1.9. That points to NEC Nijmegen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Both teams to score at 1.36. Our bold bet is NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.5 at 3.38.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Dinamo ZagrebNEC
Games played1120
Wins36
Draws38
Losses56
Goals scored1632
Goals conceded2233
Scored per game1.51.6
Conceded per game2.01.6
Home record2W 0D 3L2W 5D 3L
Away record1W 3D 2L4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets9%10%
Both teams scored64%80%
Over 2.5 goals73%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals88%1.13
Over 2.5 goals71%1.41
Over 3.5 goals50%2.01
Both teams to score71%1.41
Dinamo Zagreb or Draw60%1.68
NEC Nijmegen or Draw63%1.58
Dinamo Zagreb to win and Over 2.529%3.50
NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.532%3.16
Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet15%6.52
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet17%5.94

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.1%
1-28.1%
2-17.7%
2-27.2%
1-35.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen?

Our prediction for Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen is NEC Nijmegen to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.36.

What is the score prediction for Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Dinamo Zagreb to score 1.8 goals and NEC Nijmegen 1.9.

Will both teams score in Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen?

Both teams to score has a 71% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Dinamo Zagreb last 11 games and 16 of NEC Nijmegen last 20.

How are Dinamo Zagreb playing?

Dinamo Zagreb have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 11 games, with 16 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, W, newest first.

How are NEC Nijmegen playing?

NEC Nijmegen have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen?

Both teams to score at 1.36, with a 73% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Dinamo Zagreb against NEC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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