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Predictions › United States › Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers
College FootballFri 23 Oct, 19:00 United States time

Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers prediction

Scott Stadium

Duke Blue DevilsAway
23.6 : 30.2
projected points
Virginia CavaliersHome
29%Duke
71%Virginia
Eagle safe pickVirginia to win
-278

Quick answer

Our prediction for Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers is Virginia Cavaliers to win, with a 71% chance. We project Duke Blue Devils 23.6 and Virginia Cavaliers 30.2. Our best bet is Virginia to win at -278.

Prediction
Virginia Cavaliers to win
Chance
71%
Projected score
Duke Blue Devils 24, Virginia Cavaliers 30
Projected total
53.8 points
Best bet
Virginia to win at -278

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Virginia to win
71% chancePrice -2781 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Virginia Cavaliers 71% and Duke Blue Devils 29%. The bookmakers agree and make Virginia Cavaliers the favourite at -278.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Virginia Cavaliers won 3 of their last 5 and Duke Blue Devils won 4 of their last 5. Duke Blue Devils come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Virginia Cavaliers won 9 of their last 12 games at home. Duke Blue Devils won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Virginia Cavaliers score 30.5 points a game and let in 19.3. Duke Blue Devils score 34.7 and let in 24.8. Their recent games average 49.8 and 59.5 points in total, and the market line is 53.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Virginia Cavaliers won 1 and Duke Blue Devils won 1. The last one ended Virginia Cavaliers 20, Duke Blue Devils 27.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Virginia to win has a 71% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers: Virginia Cavaliers are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Virginia Cavaliers host Duke Blue Devils in the College Football on Fri 23 Oct, 19:00 at Scott Stadium. Our prediction for Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers is Virginia Cavaliers to win, with a 71% chance. We project Duke Blue Devils 23.6 and Virginia Cavaliers 30.2. Our best bet is Virginia to win at -278.

Virginia Cavaliers form

Virginia Cavaliers have 14 wins and 4 losses in their last 18 games, with 549 points scored and 347 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Duke Blue Devils form

Duke Blue Devils have 12 wins and 5 losses in their last 17 games, with 590 points scored and 422 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Virginia Cavaliers won 1, Duke Blue Devils won 1. Last time out it finished Virginia Cavaliers 20, Duke Blue Devils 27.

Our call

We expect Duke Blue Devils to score about 23.6 points and Virginia Cavaliers about 30.2. That points to Virginia Cavaliers to win. Our safest bet is Virginia to win at -278.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 18 games in all competitions.

VirginiaDuke
Games played1817
Wins1412
Losses45
Points scored549590
Points conceded347422
Scored per game30.534.7
Conceded per game19.324.8
Home record9W 3L6W 2L
Away record5W 1L6W 3L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Virginia to win71%-241-278-3.9%
Duke to win28%+252+225-7.6%
Virginia -6.549%+106-112-8.1%
Duke +6.548%+109-108-7.7%
Over 53.5 points49%+105-110-7.0%
Under 53.5 points48%+109-110-8.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Virginia spreadCoversFair
Virginia -13.533%+199
Virginia -9.543%+133
Virginia -6.550%-102
Virginia -3.558%-137
Virginia +0.567%-206
Total pointsOverUnder
46.567%33%
50.558%42%
53.551%49%
56.543%57%
60.534%66%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Virginia +3.5 wins if Virginia win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers?

Our prediction for Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers is Virginia Cavaliers to win, with a 71% chance. We project Duke Blue Devils 23.6 and Virginia Cavaliers 30.2. Our best bet is Virginia to win at -278.

What is the projected score for Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers?

We project Duke Blue Devils 23.6 and Virginia Cavaliers 30.2, about 53.8 points in total.

How are Virginia Cavaliers playing?

Virginia Cavaliers have 14 wins and 4 losses in their last 18 games, with 549 points scored and 347 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Duke Blue Devils playing?

Duke Blue Devils have 12 wins and 5 losses in their last 17 games, with 590 points scored and 422 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Virginia Cavaliers and Duke Blue Devils last met?

It ended Virginia Cavaliers 20, Duke Blue Devils 27. In the last 2 meetings Virginia Cavaliers won 1 and Duke Blue Devils won 1.

What is the best bet for Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers?

Virginia to win at -278, with a 71% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Virginia against Duke. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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