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Predictions › United Kingdom › Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian
Scottish PremiershipSat 21 Nov, 17:45 United Kingdom time

Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian prediction

The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park

DundeeHome
1.47 : 1.67
expected goals
Heart of MidlothianAway
33%Dundee
25%Draw
42%Hearts
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
2/9

Quick answer

Our prediction for Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Prediction
Heart of Midlothian to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Dundee 1.5, Heart of Midlothian 1.7
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 2/9
Both teams to score
63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 2/92 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Dundee to win
33% chancePrice 5/2+16.4% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Dundee 33%, the draw 25% and Heart of Midlothian 42%. The bookmakers agree and make Heart of Midlothian the favourite at 10/11.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Dundee took 7 points from their last 5 games and Heart of Midlothian took 4 from 5. Dundee come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Dundee won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Heart of Midlothian won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Dundee score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Heart of Midlothian score 1.9 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Dundee games and 15 of Heart of Midlothian games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Dundee won 0 and Heart of Midlothian won 4 with 0 draws. The last one ended Heart of Midlothian 2, Dundee 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Heartsrecent form-3%
Dundee form L W L D WHearts form L L L D WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian: Heart of Midlothian shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Dundee host Heart of Midlothian in the Scottish Premiership on Sat 21 Nov, 17:45 at The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park. Our prediction for Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Dundee form

Dundee have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Heart of Midlothian form

Heart of Midlothian have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Dundee won 0, Heart of Midlothian won 4 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Heart of Midlothian 2, Dundee 1.

Our call

We expect Dundee to score about 1.5 goals and Heart of Midlothian about 1.7. That points to Heart of Midlothian to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9. Our bold bet is Dundee to win at 5/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DundeeHearts
Games played2020
Wins89
Draws34
Losses97
Goals scored2937
Goals conceded2834
Scored per game1.41.9
Conceded per game1.41.7
Home record6W 2D 2L6W 2D 1L
Away record2W 1D 7L3W 2D 6L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored65%75%
Over 2.5 goals70%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Dundee to win33%2/15/2+16.4%
A Draw24%3/111/4-10.3%
Heart of Midlothian to win40%6/410/11-22.8%
Over 2.5 goals55%5/61/2-16.9%
Under 2.5 goals39%8/55/4-11.5%
Dundee +0.549%21/204/5-12.5%
Heart of Midlothian -0.544%5/45/6-18.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1/5
Over 2.5 goals61%4/6
Over 3.5 goals38%8/5
Both teams to score63%4/7
Dundee or Draw58%8/11
Heart of Midlothian or Draw67%1/2
Dundee to win and Over 2.523%10/3
Heart of Midlothian to win and Over 2.529%12/5
Dundee clean sheet19%9/2
Heart of Midlothian clean sheet23%10/3

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%
1-28.9%
2-17.8%
0-16.6%
2-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian?

Our prediction for Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

What is the score prediction for Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Dundee to score 1.5 goals and Heart of Midlothian 1.7.

Will both teams score in Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Dundee last 20 games and 15 of Heart of Midlothian last 20.

How are Dundee playing?

Dundee have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Heart of Midlothian playing?

Heart of Midlothian have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Dundee and Heart of Midlothian last met?

It ended Heart of Midlothian 2, Dundee 1. In the last 4 meetings Dundee won 0 and Heart of Midlothian won 4.

What is the best bet for Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/9, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Dundee against Hearts. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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