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Predictions › United Kingdom › Dundee vs Kilmarnock
Scottish PremiershipWed 28 Oct, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Dundee vs Kilmarnock prediction

The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park

DundeeHome
1.93 : 1.16
expected goals
KilmarnockAway
55%Dundee
23%Draw
22%Kilmarnock
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
2/9

Quick answer

Our prediction for Dundee vs Kilmarnock is Dundee to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Prediction
Dundee to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Dundee 1.9, Kilmarnock 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 2/9
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 2/92 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Dundee to win and Over 2.5
39% chanceFair price 8/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Dundee 55%, the draw 23% and Kilmarnock 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Dundee took 8 points from their last 5 games and Kilmarnock took 8 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Dundee won 6 of their last 12 games at home. Kilmarnock won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Dundee score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Kilmarnock score 1.5 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Dundee games and 12 of Kilmarnock games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Dundee won 1 and Kilmarnock won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Kilmarnock 3, Dundee 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Dundeerecent form+1%
  • Kilmarnockrecent form-1%
  • Dundeerest between games-5%
  • Kilmarnockrest between games-5%
Dundee form D W W L DKilmarnock form D L D W LHome edge in this league 26% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Dundee vs Kilmarnock: Dundee are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Dundee host Kilmarnock in the Scottish Premiership on Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 at The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park. Our prediction for Dundee vs Kilmarnock is Dundee to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Dundee form

Dundee have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Kilmarnock form

Kilmarnock have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Dundee won 1, Kilmarnock won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Kilmarnock 3, Dundee 1.

Our call

We expect Dundee to score about 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock about 1.2. That points to Dundee to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9. Our bold bet is Dundee to win and Over 2.5 at 8/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DundeeKilmarnock
Games played2020
Wins88
Draws54
Losses78
Goals scored3130
Goals conceded2934
Scored per game1.61.5
Conceded per game1.41.7
Home record6W 4D 2L5W 2D 3L
Away record2W 1D 5L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored65%50%
Over 2.5 goals70%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%2/9
Over 2.5 goals60%4/6
Over 3.5 goals37%7/4
Both teams to score59%4/6
Dundee or Draw78%2/7
Kilmarnock or Draw45%6/5
Dundee to win and Over 2.538%13/8
Kilmarnock to win and Over 2.514%6/1
Dundee clean sheet31%11/5
Kilmarnock clean sheet15%6/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.8%
2-19.8%
2-08.5%
1-08.2%
3-16.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Dundee vs Kilmarnock?

Our prediction for Dundee vs Kilmarnock is Dundee to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

What is the score prediction for Dundee vs Kilmarnock?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Dundee to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 1.2.

Will both teams score in Dundee vs Kilmarnock?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Dundee last 20 games and 10 of Kilmarnock last 20.

How are Dundee playing?

Dundee have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Kilmarnock playing?

Kilmarnock have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Dundee and Kilmarnock last met?

It ended Kilmarnock 3, Dundee 1. In the last 3 meetings Dundee won 1 and Kilmarnock won 1.

What is the best bet for Dundee vs Kilmarnock?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/9, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Dundee against Kilmarnock. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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