Predictions › Spain › Elche vs Celta Vigo

LaLigaSun 11 Oct, 12:00 Spain time

Elche vs Celta Vigo prediction

Estadio Martínez Valero

ElcheHome

1.16 : 1.35

expected goals

Celta VigoAway

31%Elche

28%Draw

40%Celta Vigo

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Elche vs Celta Vigo is Celta Vigo to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: Celta Vigo to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Elche 1.2, Celta Vigo 1.4
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.421 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Elche 31%, the draw 28% and Celta Vigo 40%. The bookmakers agree and make Celta Vigo the favourite at 2.55.
2
Recent form
Elche took 4 points from their last 5 games and Celta Vigo took 6 from 5. Celta Vigo come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Elche won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Celta Vigo won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Elche score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.9. Celta Vigo score 1.2 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Elche games and 10 of Celta Vigo games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Elche won 1 and Celta Vigo won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Celta Vigo 3, Elche 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Elcherecent form-3%

Elche form W L D L LCelta Vigo form W L D D DHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Elche vs Celta Vigo: Celta Vigo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Elche host Celta Vigo in the LaLiga on Sun 11 Oct, 12:00 at Estadio Martínez Valero. Our prediction for Elche vs Celta Vigo is Celta Vigo to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Elche form

Elche have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Celta Vigo form

Celta Vigo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Elche won 1, Celta Vigo won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Celta Vigo 3, Elche 1.

Our call

We expect Elche to score about 1.2 goals and Celta Vigo about 1.4. That points to Celta Vigo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.42.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Elche	Celta Vigo
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	5
Draws	5	5
Losses	9	10
Goals scored	28	24
Goals conceded	37	30
Scored per game	1.4	1.2
Conceded per game	1.9	1.5
Home record	4W 2D 3L	3W 1D 6L
Away record	2W 3D 6L	2W 4D 4L
Clean sheets	10%	25%
Both teams scored	80%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Elche to win	30%	3.28	2.75	-16.2%
A Draw	28%	3.63	3.20	-11.8%
Celta Vigo to win	38%	2.64	2.55	-3.6%
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.29	2.00	-12.8%
Under 2.5 goals	51%	1.98	1.74	-12.0%
Elche +0.5	58%	1.72	1.48	-14.0%
Celta Vigo -0.5	37%	2.71	2.35	-13.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.18
Over 3.5 goals	25%	4.08
Both teams to score	52%	1.93
Elche or Draw	60%	1.67
Celta Vigo or Draw	69%	1.46
Elche to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.78
Celta Vigo to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.41
Elche clean sheet	26%	3.85
Celta Vigo clean sheet	31%	3.20

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%

0-110.2%

0-08.9%

1-08.7%

1-28.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Elche vs Celta Vigo?

Our prediction for Elche vs Celta Vigo is Celta Vigo to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Elche vs Celta Vigo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Elche to score 1.2 goals and Celta Vigo 1.4.

Will both teams score in Elche vs Celta Vigo?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of Elche last 20 games and 10 of Celta Vigo last 20.

How are Elche playing?

How are Celta Vigo playing?

What happened when Elche and Celta Vigo last met?

It ended Celta Vigo 3, Elche 1. In the last 2 meetings Elche won 1 and Celta Vigo won 1.

What is the best bet for Elche vs Celta Vigo?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Elche against Celta Vigo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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