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Predictions › Spain › Eldense vs Real Oviedo
LaLiga 2Fri 2 Oct, 18:30 Spain time

Eldense vs Real Oviedo prediction

Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

EldenseHome
1.18 : 1.23
expected goals
Real OviedoAway
34%Eldense
29%Draw
37%Real Oviedo
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Eldense vs Real Oviedo is Real Oviedo to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Real Oviedo to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Eldense 1.2, Real Oviedo 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.231 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Eldense 34%, the draw 29% and Real Oviedo 37%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Eldense the favourite at 2.65, so take care with this one.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Eldense took 4 points from their last 5 games and Real Oviedo took 10 from 5. Real Oviedo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Eldense won 0 of their last 3 games at home. Real Oviedo won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Eldense score 0.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Real Oviedo score 0.8 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Eldense games and 8 of Real Oviedo games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Eldenserecent form-3%
  • Real Oviedorecent form+3%
  • Eldenserest between games-5%
  • Real Oviedorest between games-5%
Eldense form L L W D LReal Oviedo form W L W D WHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Eldense vs Real Oviedo: Real Oviedo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Eldense host Real Oviedo in the LaLiga 2 on Fri 2 Oct, 18:30 at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat. Our prediction for Eldense vs Real Oviedo is Real Oviedo to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Eldense form

Eldense have 1 win, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 7 games, with 4 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 3. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Real Oviedo form

Real Oviedo have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Eldense to score about 1.2 goals and Real Oviedo about 1.2. That points to Real Oviedo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.23.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

EldenseReal Oviedo
Games played720
Wins16
Draws25
Losses49
Goals scored417
Goals conceded924
Scored per game0.60.8
Conceded per game1.31.2
Home record0W 2D 1L3W 4D 3L
Away record1W 0D 3L3W 1D 6L
Clean sheets29%45%
Both teams scored29%25%
Over 2.5 goals43%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Eldense to win32%3.102.65-14.6%
A Draw28%3.573.05-14.6%
Real Oviedo to win34%2.922.65-9.2%
Over 2.5 goals40%2.482.10-15.3%
Under 2.5 goals53%1.871.63-13.2%
Eldense -0.534%2.962.45-17.1%
Real Oviedo +0.563%1.591.44-9.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.43
Over 2.5 goals43%2.32
Over 3.5 goals22%4.50
Both teams to score50%2.01
Eldense or Draw63%1.58
Real Oviedo or Draw66%1.52
Eldense to win and Over 2.518%5.54
Real Oviedo to win and Over 2.520%5.12
Eldense clean sheet29%3.41
Real Oviedo clean sheet31%3.24

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%
0-110.3%
1-09.8%
0-09.8%
1-28.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Eldense vs Real Oviedo?

Our prediction for Eldense vs Real Oviedo is Real Oviedo to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Eldense vs Real Oviedo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect Eldense to score 1.2 goals and Real Oviedo 1.2.

Will both teams score in Eldense vs Real Oviedo?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 2 of Eldense last 7 games and 5 of Real Oviedo last 20.

How are Eldense playing?

Eldense have 1 win, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 7 games, with 4 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 3. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, L, newest first.

How are Real Oviedo playing?

Real Oviedo have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Eldense vs Real Oviedo?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Eldense against Real Oviedo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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