Predictions › Italy › Empoli vs Palermo

Serie BSat 10 Oct, 13:00 Italy time

Empoli vs Palermo prediction

Stadio Carlo Castellani - Computer Gross Arena

EmpoliHome

1.15 : 1.51

expected goals

PalermoAway

28%Empoli

27%Draw

45%Palermo

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Empoli vs Palermo is Palermo to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: Palermo to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Empoli 1.1, Palermo 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Empoli to win

27% chancePrice 3.651 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Empoli 28%, the draw 27% and Palermo 45%. The bookmakers agree and make Palermo the favourite at 1.91.
2
Recent form
Empoli took 6 points from their last 5 games and Palermo took 13 from 5. Palermo come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Empoli won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Palermo won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Empoli score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Palermo score 1.6 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Empoli games and 10 of Palermo games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Empoli won 0 and Palermo won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Palermo 3, Empoli 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Empolirecent form-1%
Palermorecent form+6%

Empoli form L L W L WPalermo form W D W W WHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Empoli vs Palermo: Palermo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Empoli host Palermo in the Serie B on Sat 10 Oct, 13:00 at Stadio Carlo Castellani - Computer Gross Arena. Our prediction for Empoli vs Palermo is Palermo to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Empoli form

Empoli have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Palermo form

Palermo have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Empoli won 0, Palermo won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Palermo 3, Empoli 2.

Our call

We expect Empoli to score about 1.1 goals and Palermo about 1.5. That points to Palermo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Empoli to win at 3.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Empoli	Palermo
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	12
Draws	7	4
Losses	9	4
Goals scored	23	31
Goals conceded	29	22
Scored per game	1.1	1.6
Conceded per game	1.4	1.1
Home record	3W 4D 2L	9W 1D 0L
Away record	1W 3D 7L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	15%	35%
Both teams scored	65%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Empoli to win	27%	3.65	3.65	-0.1%
A Draw	26%	3.81	3.55	-6.9%
Palermo to win	42%	2.39	1.91	-20.2%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.01	1.69	-16.1%
Under 2.5 goals	44%	2.27	2.00	-11.8%
Empoli +0.5	49%	2.05	1.80	-12.3%
Palermo -0.5	45%	2.22	1.83	-17.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.33
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.01
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.60
Both teams to score	54%	1.85
Empoli or Draw	55%	1.81
Palermo or Draw	72%	1.39
Empoli to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.13
Palermo to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.70
Empoli clean sheet	22%	4.53
Palermo clean sheet	32%	3.17

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%

0-19.8%

1-29.2%

0-28.0%

0-07.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Empoli vs Palermo?

Our prediction for Empoli vs Palermo is Palermo to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Empoli vs Palermo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Empoli to score 1.1 goals and Palermo 1.5.

Will both teams score in Empoli vs Palermo?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Empoli last 20 games and 10 of Palermo last 20.

How are Empoli playing?

How are Palermo playing?

What happened when Empoli and Palermo last met?

It ended Palermo 3, Empoli 2. In the last 2 meetings Empoli won 0 and Palermo won 2.

What is the best bet for Empoli vs Palermo?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Empoli against Palermo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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