Predictions › Germany › Energie Cottbus vs Hertha Berlin

2. BundesligaSun 22 Nov, 12:30 Germany time

Energie Cottbus vs Hertha Berlin prediction

Stadion Der Freundschaft

Energie CottbusHome

1.30 : 2.24

expected goals

Hertha BerlinAway

21%Cottbus

21%Draw

58%Hertha

Eagle safe pickHertha Berlin or Draw

1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Energie Cottbus vs Hertha Berlin is Hertha Berlin to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Hertha Berlin or Draw at 1.27.

Prediction: Hertha Berlin to win
Chance: 58%
Most likely score: 1-2
Expected goals: Energie Cottbus 1.3, Hertha Berlin 2.2
Best bet: Hertha Berlin or Draw at 1.27
Both teams to score: 65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Hertha Berlin or Draw

79% chanceFair price 1.272 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Hertha Berlin to win and Over 2.5

43% chanceFair price 2.341 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Energie Cottbus 21%, the draw 21% and Hertha Berlin 58%. The bookmakers agree and make Hertha Berlin the favourite at 1.61.
2
Recent form
Energie Cottbus took 3 points from their last 5 games and Hertha Berlin took 13 from 5. Hertha Berlin come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Energie Cottbus won 1 of their last 5 games at home. Hertha Berlin won 7 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Energie Cottbus score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.8. Hertha Berlin score 1.8 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Energie Cottbus games and 11 of Hertha Berlin games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Hertha Berlin or Draw has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Cottbusrecent form-3%
Hertharecent form+6%

Cottbus form D L D D LHertha form W W W W DHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Energie Cottbus vs Hertha Berlin: Hertha Berlin are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Energie Cottbus host Hertha Berlin in the 2. Bundesliga on Sun 22 Nov, 12:30 at Stadion Der Freundschaft. Our prediction for Energie Cottbus vs Hertha Berlin is Hertha Berlin to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Hertha Berlin or Draw at 1.27.

Energie Cottbus form

Energie Cottbus have 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 11 games, with 18 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Hertha Berlin form

Hertha Berlin have 13 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Energie Cottbus to score about 1.3 goals and Hertha Berlin about 2.2. That points to Hertha Berlin to win, with 1-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Hertha Berlin or Draw at 1.27. Our bold bet is Hertha Berlin to win and Over 2.5 at 2.34.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Cottbus	Hertha
Games played	11	20
Wins	2	13
Draws	5	3
Losses	4	4
Goals scored	18	36
Goals conceded	20	23
Scored per game	1.6	1.8
Conceded per game	1.8	1.1
Home record	1W 2D 2L	6W 1D 2L
Away record	1W 3D 2L	7W 2D 2L
Clean sheets	18%	25%
Both teams scored	73%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	64%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Energie Cottbus to win	20%	4.98	4.40	-11.6%
A Draw	20%	4.97	4.40	-11.4%
Hertha Berlin to win	53%	1.89	1.61	-15.1%
Over 3.5 goals	45%	2.21	1.87	-15.4%
Under 3.5 goals	48%	2.08	1.77	-15.1%
Energie Cottbus +0.5	40%	2.49	2.20	-11.6%
Hertha Berlin -0.5	53%	1.89	1.56	-17.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	87%	1.15
Over 2.5 goals	69%	1.46
Over 3.5 goals	47%	2.12
Both teams to score	65%	1.53
Energie Cottbus or Draw	42%	2.40
Hertha Berlin or Draw	79%	1.26
Energie Cottbus to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.61
Hertha Berlin to win and Over 2.5	45%	2.23
Energie Cottbus clean sheet	11%	9.40
Hertha Berlin clean sheet	27%	3.65

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-29.5%

1-19.0%

0-27.3%

1-37.1%

2-26.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Energie Cottbus vs Hertha Berlin?

Our prediction for Energie Cottbus vs Hertha Berlin is Hertha Berlin to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Hertha Berlin or Draw at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Energie Cottbus vs Hertha Berlin?

1-2 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-2. We expect Energie Cottbus to score 1.3 goals and Hertha Berlin 2.2.

Will both teams score in Energie Cottbus vs Hertha Berlin?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Energie Cottbus last 11 games and 12 of Hertha Berlin last 20.

How are Energie Cottbus playing?

How are Hertha Berlin playing?

What is the best bet for Energie Cottbus vs Hertha Berlin?

Hertha Berlin or Draw at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cottbus against Hertha. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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