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Predictions › Germany › Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli
2. BundesligaSun 20 Sept, 11:30 Germany time

Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli prediction

Stadion Der Freundschaft

Energie CottbusHome
1.92 : 1.65
expected goals
St. PauliAway
44%Cottbus
23%Draw
33%St. Pauli
Eagle safe pickBoth teams to score
1.42

Quick answer

Our prediction for Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli is Energie Cottbus to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.42.

Prediction
Energie Cottbus to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Energie Cottbus 1.9, St. Pauli 1.6
Best bet
Both teams to score at 1.42
Both teams to score
69%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Both teams to score
70% chanceFair price 1.421 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Energie Cottbus to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price 3.161 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Energie Cottbus 44%, the draw 23% and St. Pauli 33%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Energie Cottbus took 4 points from their last 4 games and St. Pauli took 6 from 5. St. Pauli come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Goals

    Energie Cottbus score 2.5 goals a game and let in 3.0. St. Pauli score 0.9 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Energie Cottbus games and 12 of St. Pauli games in that run.

  4. 4
    The safest bet

    Both teams to score has a 70% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cottbusrecent form-3%
  • St. Paulirecent form-1%
  • St. Paulirest between games-5%
Cottbus form D L L L WSt. Pauli form W D L L DHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli: Energie Cottbus shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Energie Cottbus host St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga on Sun 20 Sept, 11:30 at Stadion Der Freundschaft. Our prediction for Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli is Energie Cottbus to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.42.

Energie Cottbus form

Energie Cottbus have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 4 games, with 10 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 1 loss from 2. Their last 4 results read D, L, L, W, newest first.

St. Pauli form

St. Pauli have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Energie Cottbus to score about 1.9 goals and St. Pauli about 1.6. That points to Energie Cottbus to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Both teams to score at 1.42. Our bold bet is Energie Cottbus to win and Over 2.5 at 3.16.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CottbusSt. Pauli
Games played420
Wins14
Draws16
Losses210
Goals scored1019
Goals conceded1235
Scored per game2.50.9
Conceded per game3.01.8
Home record1W 0D 1L3W 3D 5L
Away record0W 1D 1L1W 3D 5L
Clean sheets0%15%
Both teams scored75%65%
Over 2.5 goals100%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals88%1.14
Over 2.5 goals69%1.45
Over 3.5 goals48%2.10
Both teams to score69%1.44
Energie Cottbus or Draw67%1.49
St. Pauli or Draw56%1.79
Energie Cottbus to win and Over 2.534%2.95
St. Pauli to win and Over 2.525%3.99
Energie Cottbus clean sheet19%5.19
St. Pauli clean sheet15%6.81

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.5%
2-18.6%
1-27.4%
2-27.1%
3-15.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli?

Our prediction for Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli is Energie Cottbus to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.42.

What is the score prediction for Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Energie Cottbus to score 1.9 goals and St. Pauli 1.6.

Will both teams score in Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli?

Both teams to score has a 69% chance. Both sides scored in 3 of Energie Cottbus last 4 games and 13 of St. Pauli last 20.

How are Energie Cottbus playing?

Energie Cottbus have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 4 games, with 10 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 1 loss from 2. Their last 4 results read D, L, L, W, newest first.

How are St. Pauli playing?

St. Pauli have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli?

Both teams to score at 1.42, with a 70% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cottbus against St. Pauli. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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