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Predictions › Spain › Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid
LaLigaSat 17 Oct, 12:00 Spain time

Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid prediction

RCDE Stadium

EspanyolHome
1.11 : 1.67
expected goals
Atlético MadridAway
25%Espanyol
26%Draw
50%Atlético
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Atlético Madrid to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Espanyol 1.1, Atlético Madrid 1.7
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético Madrid to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.231 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Espanyol 25%, the draw 26% and Atlético Madrid 50%. The bookmakers agree and make Atlético Madrid the favourite at 1.83.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Espanyol took 4 points from their last 5 games and Atlético Madrid took 9 from 5. Atlético Madrid come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Espanyol won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Atlético Madrid won 5 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Espanyol score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Atlético Madrid score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Espanyol games and 13 of Atlético Madrid games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Espanyol won 0 and Atlético Madrid won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlético Madrid 4, Espanyol 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Espanyolrecent form-3%
  • Atléticorecent form+1%
Espanyol form L L W D LAtlético form W W W L LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid: Atlético Madrid are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Espanyol host Atlético Madrid in the LaLiga on Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 at RCDE Stadium. Our prediction for Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Espanyol form

Espanyol have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Atlético Madrid form

Atlético Madrid have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Espanyol won 0, Atlético Madrid won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Madrid 4, Espanyol 2.

Our call

We expect Espanyol to score about 1.1 goals and Atlético Madrid about 1.7. That points to Atlético Madrid to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Atlético Madrid to win and Over 2.5 at 3.23.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

EspanyolAtlético
Games played2020
Wins410
Draws62
Losses108
Goals scored2233
Goals conceded2827
Scored per game1.11.6
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record2W 4D 4L5W 2D 2L
Away record2W 2D 6L5W 0D 6L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored65%55%
Over 2.5 goals55%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Espanyol to win24%4.123.95-4.2%
A Draw25%3.953.65-7.5%
Atlético Madrid to win46%2.151.83-14.9%
Over 2.5 goals49%2.041.77-13.4%
Under 2.5 goals44%2.261.95-13.5%
Espanyol +0.546%2.181.87-14.4%
Atlético Madrid -0.547%2.111.77-16.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.90
Over 3.5 goals30%3.29
Both teams to score55%1.82
Espanyol or Draw50%1.99
Atlético Madrid or Draw75%1.33
Espanyol to win and Over 2.515%6.87
Atlético Madrid to win and Over 2.531%3.18
Espanyol clean sheet19%5.32
Atlético Madrid clean sheet33%3.03

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.2%
0-19.7%
1-29.6%
0-28.7%
0-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Mourinho Blames Referees After Real Madrid Fall Behind Barcelona

Jose Mourinho targeted the officials after Real Madrid lost the derby, while Arsenal suffered a shock defeat at Brighton.

21 Sept 2026
LaLiga

Simeone Expresses Great Respect For Mourinho Before Derby

Diego Simeone and José Mourinho will face each other in Sunday's Madrid Derby for the first time since 2014.

19 Sept 2026
LaLiga

Mourinho Questions Rivals' Penalty Luck Ahead of Elche Clash

Real Madrid boss José Mourinho pointed out penalty decisions going the way of rivals Barcelona and Atlético Madrid.

14 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid?

Our prediction for Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Espanyol to score 1.1 goals and Atlético Madrid 1.7.

Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Espanyol last 20 games and 11 of Atlético Madrid last 20.

How are Espanyol playing?

Espanyol have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, L, newest first.

How are Atlético Madrid playing?

Atlético Madrid have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Espanyol and Atlético Madrid last met?

It ended Atlético Madrid 4, Espanyol 2. In the last 1 meeting Espanyol won 0 and Atlético Madrid won 1.

What is the best bet for Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Espanyol against Atlético. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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