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Predictions › Spain › Espanyol vs Deportivo
LaLigaSat 7 Nov, 15:15 Spain time

Espanyol vs Deportivo prediction

RCDE Stadium

EspanyolHome
1.39 : 1.20
expected goals
DeportivoAway
41%Espanyol
28%Draw
32%Deportivo
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Espanyol vs Deportivo is Espanyol to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Prediction
Espanyol to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Espanyol 1.4, Deportivo 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.34
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.341 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.541 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Espanyol 41%, the draw 28% and Deportivo 32%. The bookmakers agree and make Espanyol the favourite at 2.15.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Espanyol took 1 point from their last 5 games and Deportivo took 2 from 5. Deportivo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Espanyol won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Deportivo won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Espanyol score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Deportivo score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Espanyol games and 7 of Deportivo games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Espanyolrecent form-4%
  • Deportivorecent form-3%
Espanyol form D L L D LDeportivo form D D L D LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Espanyol vs Deportivo: Espanyol shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Espanyol host Deportivo in the LaLiga on Sat 7 Nov, 15:15 at RCDE Stadium. Our prediction for Espanyol vs Deportivo is Espanyol to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Espanyol form

Espanyol have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Deportivo form

Deportivo have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Espanyol to score about 1.4 goals and Deportivo about 1.2. That points to Espanyol to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.54.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

EspanyolDeportivo
Games played2020
Wins48
Draws58
Losses114
Goals scored2029
Goals conceded2721
Scored per game1.01.4
Conceded per game1.41.1
Home record2W 3D 5L5W 4D 2L
Away record2W 2D 6L3W 4D 2L
Clean sheets25%15%
Both teams scored60%75%
Over 2.5 goals50%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Espanyol to win40%2.482.15-13.4%
A Draw27%3.723.40-8.5%
Deportivo to win30%3.283.20-2.6%
Over 2.5 goals46%2.181.91-12.3%
Under 2.5 goals48%2.071.80-13.2%
Espanyol -0.543%2.342.00-14.4%
Deportivo +0.551%1.951.65-15.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1.36
Over 2.5 goals48%2.09
Over 3.5 goals26%3.83
Both teams to score53%1.88
Espanyol or Draw68%1.46
Deportivo or Draw59%1.68
Espanyol to win and Over 2.524%4.24
Deportivo to win and Over 2.518%5.57
Espanyol clean sheet30%3.32
Deportivo clean sheet25%4.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
1-09.7%
2-18.7%
0-08.3%
0-18.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Espanyol vs Deportivo?

Our prediction for Espanyol vs Deportivo is Espanyol to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Espanyol vs Deportivo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Espanyol to score 1.4 goals and Deportivo 1.2.

Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Deportivo?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Espanyol last 20 games and 15 of Deportivo last 20.

How are Espanyol playing?

Espanyol have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Deportivo playing?

Deportivo have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Espanyol vs Deportivo?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.34, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Espanyol against Deportivo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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