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Predictions › Portugal › Estoril vs Moreirense
Primeira LigaSun 25 Oct, 15:30 Portugal time

Estoril vs Moreirense prediction

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

EstorilHome
1.46 : 1.17
expected goals
MoreirenseAway
43%Estoril
27%Draw
30%Moreirense
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Estoril vs Moreirense is Estoril to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
Estoril to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Estoril 1.5, Moreirense 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.331 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.651 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Estoril 43%, the draw 27% and Moreirense 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Estoril took 1 point from their last 5 games and Moreirense took 4 from 5. Moreirense come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Estoril won 1 of their last 10 games at home. Moreirense won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Estoril score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. Moreirense score 0.8 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Estoril games and 9 of Moreirense games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Estoril won 0 and Moreirense won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Moreirense 1, Estoril 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Estorilrecent form-4%
  • Moreirenserecent form-1%
Estoril form D L L D LMoreirense form D D W L LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Estoril vs Moreirense: Estoril shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Estoril host Moreirense in the Primeira Liga on Sun 25 Oct, 15:30 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Our prediction for Estoril vs Moreirense is Estoril to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Estoril form

Estoril have 2 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Moreirense form

Moreirense have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Estoril won 0, Moreirense won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Moreirense 1, Estoril 0.

Our call

We expect Estoril to score about 1.5 goals and Moreirense about 1.2. That points to Estoril to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

EstorilMoreirense
Games played2020
Wins24
Draws56
Losses1310
Goals scored1516
Goals conceded3134
Scored per game0.80.8
Conceded per game1.61.7
Home record1W 3D 6L3W 3D 5L
Away record1W 2D 7L1W 3D 5L
Clean sheets15%15%
Both teams scored55%45%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%1.34
Over 2.5 goals49%2.05
Over 3.5 goals27%3.71
Both teams to score54%1.86
Estoril or Draw70%1.42
Moreirense or Draw57%1.75
Estoril to win and Over 2.525%3.93
Moreirense to win and Over 2.517%5.88
Estoril clean sheet31%3.23
Moreirense clean sheet23%4.29

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%
1-09.8%
2-19.0%
0-08.0%
0-17.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Estoril vs Moreirense?

Our prediction for Estoril vs Moreirense is Estoril to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Estoril vs Moreirense?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Estoril to score 1.5 goals and Moreirense 1.2.

Will both teams score in Estoril vs Moreirense?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Estoril last 20 games and 9 of Moreirense last 20.

How are Estoril playing?

Estoril have 2 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Moreirense playing?

Moreirense have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Estoril and Moreirense last met?

It ended Moreirense 1, Estoril 0. In the last 2 meetings Estoril won 0 and Moreirense won 1.

What is the best bet for Estoril vs Moreirense?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Estoril against Moreirense. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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