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Predictions › Portugal › Estrela vs Casa Pia
Primeira LigaSat 24 Oct, 14:30 Portugal time

Estrela vs Casa Pia prediction

Estádio José Gomes

EstrelaHome
1.37 : 0.92
expected goals
Casa PiaAway
46%Estrela
29%Draw
25%Casa Pia
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Estrela vs Casa Pia is Estrela to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Estrela to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Estrela 1.4, Casa Pia 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.381 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Estrela 46%, the draw 29% and Casa Pia 25%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Estrela took 5 points from their last 5 games and Casa Pia took 4 from 5. Estrela come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Estrela won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Casa Pia won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Estrela score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.6. Casa Pia score 0.5 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Estrela games and 6 of Casa Pia games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Estrela won 2 and Casa Pia won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Estrela 4, Casa Pia 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Casa Piarecent form-1%
  • Estrelarest between games-2%
Estrela form D L D W DCasa Pia form D W L D LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Estrela vs Casa Pia: Estrela are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Estrela host Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga on Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 at Estádio José Gomes. Our prediction for Estrela vs Casa Pia is Estrela to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Estrela form

Estrela have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, D, newest first.

Casa Pia form

Casa Pia have 2 wins, 6 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 9 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Estrela won 2, Casa Pia won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Estrela 4, Casa Pia 0.

Our call

We expect Estrela to score about 1.4 goals and Casa Pia about 0.9. That points to Estrela to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.38.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

EstrelaCasa Pia
Games played2020
Wins32
Draws86
Losses912
Goals scored269
Goals conceded3233
Scored per game1.30.5
Conceded per game1.61.6
Home record2W 4D 4L0W 4D 6L
Away record1W 4D 5L2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets15%20%
Both teams scored55%35%
Over 2.5 goals60%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals67%1.48
Over 2.5 goals40%2.50
Over 3.5 goals20%5.04
Both teams to score46%2.19
Estrela or Draw75%1.33
Casa Pia or Draw54%1.86
Estrela to win and Over 2.524%4.20
Casa Pia to win and Over 2.512%8.58
Estrela clean sheet40%2.51
Casa Pia clean sheet26%3.92

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%
1-013.1%
0-010.9%
2-09.5%
2-18.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?

Our prediction for Estrela vs Casa Pia is Estrela to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Estrela vs Casa Pia?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Estrela to score 1.4 goals and Casa Pia 0.9.

Will both teams score in Estrela vs Casa Pia?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Estrela last 20 games and 7 of Casa Pia last 20.

How are Estrela playing?

Estrela have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, D, newest first.

How are Casa Pia playing?

Casa Pia have 2 wins, 6 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 9 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Estrela and Casa Pia last met?

It ended Estrela 4, Casa Pia 0. In the last 2 meetings Estrela won 2 and Casa Pia won 0.

What is the best bet for Estrela vs Casa Pia?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Estrela against Casa Pia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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